The figures published in the new study were based on the same methodology that was used in the previous Ifo study (Dresden branch) but refer only to the wage distribution that the Federal Statistical Office has determined for companies with ten or more employees in the producing sector and in selected service areas. These companies account for only about 18 million of the total 31 million private-sector jobs in Germany. As Die Welt correctly reported, in these companies in 2001 about 42 percent of employees in the east and 22 percent of employees in the west received wages below the above-mentioned minimum wage for mail carriers. Using a conservative reaction coefficient, which is in the lower range of what was used in previous studies (1 percent wage increase means job losses of 0.75 percent), the Ifo Institute calculates that of the employees in these low wage groups 23.3 percent in the east and 25.1 percent in the west will probably become unemployed. In terms of the number of employees in the above-mentioned companies, this corresponds to job losses of 9.9 percent in the east and in 5.5 percent the west.
If one applies these percentages to all private-sector employees in the east (4.7 million) and in the west (26.1 million), a comprehensive minimum wage of the above amount would destroy approximately 470 thousand jobs in the east and some 1.42 million jobs in the west. In total, job losses of about 1.9 million can be expected in Germany if the minimum wage for mail carriers were to be applied to all industry sectors in Germany.
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