Dr. Sebastian Link

The number of short-time workers in Germany has fallen despite the economic slowdown. In August, 110,000 people were on short-time work, down from 150,000* in May, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey and figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. “Germany’s weak economy has had little effect so far. One reason for this may be that the regulations facilitating access to short-time allowances expired at the end of June,” says ifo labor market researcher Sebastian Link. As a share of the workforce, the figure fell from 0.4 to 0.3 percent.

The number of short-time workers in Germany has risen slightly. It stood at 144,000 people in May, marginally higher than February’s 140,000*, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey and figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. “Short-time work isn’t playing a significant role in the current phase of economic weakness,” says ifo labor market researcher Sebastian Link. As a share of the workforce, the figure remained at 0.4%.

The number of short-time workers in Germany rose by just under 9 percent to 220,000 in February.  In January, the figure was 203.000. This is the highest number since last June, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey and figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. “Developments in short-time work reflect the current mild winter recession,” says ifo labor market researcher Sebastian Link. As a share of the workforce, the figure climbed from 0.6 percent to 0.7 percent.

The number of short-time workers in Germany rose slightly in January. There are currently 205,000 people on short-time work, up from 186,000 in December, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on its Business Surveys and figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. This corresponds to 0.6 percent of the workforce. “Short-time work remains at a low level, which is fairly typical for a very mild winter recession,” says ifo researcher Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany remained almost unchanged in December. There are currently 186,000 people on short-time work, down slightly from 188,000 (seasonally adjusted) in November, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. This corresponds to 0.6 percent of the workforce. “The fact that short-time work remains at a low level seems to indicate that the expected winter recession will be very mild,” says ifo researcher Sebastian Link. 

For the first time since January, the number of short-time workers in Germany is increasing. Between August and November, it rose from 76,000 to 187,000, according to an ifo Institute estimate. These figures are based on ifo surveys as well as on data from the German Federal Employment Agency. The rise was most evident in manufacturing, where the number of short-time workers increased from 59,000 to 151,000. 

The increase in the German minimum wage on October 1 is causing many companies to raise their prices, finds the ifo Business Survey. The increase affects companies across almost all sectors of the economy. Of the participating companies, 30.7 percent employ staff for less than EUR 12 per hour; 58.3 percent are planning to respond with higher prices. “This will likely exacerbate inflation, which is already high,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. As of October 1, the German government is increasing the minimum wage from EUR 10.45 to EUR 12 per hour.

The number of short-time workers in Germany has risen sharply. In December, it increased to 879,000 people, up from 712,000 the previous month. That now represents 2.6 percent of the workforce, after 2.1 percent in November. These figures are ifo Institute estimates based on its surveys as well as on data from the German Federal Employment Agency.

In May, the number of short-time workers in Germany decreased somewhat from 2.5 million to 2.3 million, representing 6.8 percent of dependent employees. This is an ifo Institute estimate based on its Business Survey and on data from the German Employment Agency. The decline in short-time work was seen in nearly all industries. “In hospitality, the figure is still very high: here, 489,000 people – fully 46.1 percent of the workforce – are on short-time work,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. In retail, the number of short-time workers fell from 235,000 to 227,000, or 9.3 percent of the workforce.

In April, the number of short-time workers in Germany fell by 10 percent, from 3.0* million to 2.7 million. This is an ifo Institute estimate based on its monthly Business Survey and data from the German Employment Agency. In manufacturing, the number fell from 535,000 to 444,000 people in April. This means that 6.4 percent of manufacturing employees are still on short-time work. “In hospitality, however, the situation is unchanged: here, 565,000 people – fully 53.2 percent of the workforce – are on short-time work,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany fell in March. According to estimates by the ifo Institute, 2.7 million people were on short-time work, down from 2.9 million (*) in February. That represents 8.0 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions, down from 8.7 percent in February. “There was a decline across almost all sectors of the economy, especially in manufacturing. The slight easing of restrictions also led to a decline in trade and hospitality. However, the share of short-time workers in hospitality remains very, very high at 50.8 percent", says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany rose by more than 100,000 in February. According to estimates by the ifo Institute, 2.8 million people were on short-time work, up from 2.7 million (*) in January. That represents 8.5 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions, up from 8.1 percent in January. “It’s a mixed picture: while short-time work increased overall, particularly in hotels and restaurants and in retail, it declined in industry,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany rose by almost 20 percent in January. According to estimates by the ifo Institute, 2.6 million people were on short-time work, up from 2.2 million in December. The January figure represents 7.8 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions, up from 6.6 percent in December. Hospitality is the most affected industry.

Short-time work in Germany fell slightly in December. According to ifo estimates, at year-end 1.95 million people were affected compared with 1.98 million in the previous month. “But even if it looks on the surface like things are stabilizing, greater shifts are happening behind the scenes: yes, short-time work is down in manufacturing, in all of its economic sectors. But it increased in retail and hospitality, which the current lockdown has hit especially hard,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

According to estimates by the ifo Institute, the number of employees on short-time work in Germany rose in November for the first time since May. The estimates suggest that around 2.0 million people are likely to have been on short-time work, up from around 1.8 million in October. Originally, the ifo Institute had estimated the figure for October at 3.3 million. “ifo has revised its figures for October and previous months downward. This is because the German Federal Employment Agency has now published its final figures for May for the first time, which meant we could compare them with our original ifo estimates,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

For the first time in months, the proportion of companies implementing short-time work increased in November in Germany. It rose to 28.0 percent, up from 24.8 percent in October, according to surveys by the ifo Institute. Most notably, among hotels the proportion rose from 62.9 to 91 percent of companies, in hospitality from 53.4 to 71.7 percent, and among travel agencies and tour operators from 88.0 to 91.1 percent. “It is precisely in these sectors, which have been massively affected by the partial lockdown, that short-time work is once again very prevalent,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

Baden-Württemberg has overtaken Bavaria to be the German federal state with the largest share of short-time workers, according to exclusive estimates from the ifo Institute. The estimates indicate that in October, approximately 13 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions there were on short-time work; the figure in Bavaria was 12 percent. “Short-time work continues to be much more prevalent in southern Länder with a lot of metal processing, mechanical engineering, and car manufacturers and suppliers,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The rate of decline in short-time work in Germany was much slower in October than in the previous months. According to exclusive ifo Institute estimates and calculations, the number of employees affected fell only by around 450,000 to just under 3.3 million. Previously, the decline was around one million people per month. This means 10 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions are still on short-time work in October, following 11 percent in September. “Short-time work is proving particularly persistent in industry, where it still affects 19 percent of employees or 1.3 million people,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

Bavaria is the German federal state with the largest share of short-time workers, according to exclusive figures from the ifo Institute. The ifo survey reveals that approximately 14 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions were on short-time work there in September; the figure for August was 18 percent (revised figure for August). This corresponds to a drop from one million (revised figure for August) to 825,000  people. “Short-time work is most prevalent in Länder with a lot of metal processing, mechanical engineering, and car manufacturers and suppliers,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The industries with the largest proportion of short-time workers in Germany are metal, mechanical engineering, hospitality, vehicle construction and suppliers, as well as electrical equipment and electronics. This is the finding of exclusive calculations and estimates by the ifo Institute based on its Business Survey for September. “The figures decreased across all these industries in September, but they are still quite clearly above the average for all employees subject to social insurance, which is currently at about 11 percent,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. 

Le nombre de chômeurs partiels en Allemagne a diminué, passant de 4,7 millions en août (résultat corrigé du mois d'août) à 3,7 millions au mois de septembre. C'est le résultat des estimations et calculs de l'Institut ifo réalisés exclusivement sur la base de son enquête conjoncturelle. Les chômeurs partiels ne représentent donc plus que 11 % des salariés assujettis aux cotisations obligatoires de l’assurance sociale, contre 14 % au mois d'août. « Le chômage partiel se résorbe progressivement, même s'il reste particulièrement élevé dans l'industrie », constate Sebastian Link, spécialiste du marché du travail au sein de l'Institut ifo.

The number of short-time workers in Germany fell to 3.7 million in September, down from 4.7 million in August (August figure revised), according to exclusive calculations and estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey. Short-time workers now account for just 11 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions, compared to 14 percent in August. “Short-time work is steadily declining. However, the proportion of employees in industry on short-time work remains particularly high,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany fell to 4.6 million in August, down from 5.6 million in July. This is the finding of exclusive calculations and estimates by the ifo Institute based on its Business Survey. Expressed as a share of all employees subject to social insurance contributions, short-time work shrank from 17 to 14 percent. “The decline was relatively hefty in trade, hospitality, and among administrative and support services, but much less pronounced in manufacturing,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of companies with short-time work continues to fall slowly in Germany. In August, 37 percent of the companies participating in the ifo Business Survey were using short-time work. In July, that figure was 42 percent. “The proportion of companies with short-time work has declined across almost all sectors, even if the overall numbers are still high,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. Manufacturing still topped the list in August with 53 percent of companies reporting short-time work, after 57 percent in July. 

Bavaria is the German federal state with the most short-time workers, according to exclusive figures from the ifo Institute. The ifo survey reveals that an estimated 21 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions, or 1.2 million people, were on short-time work there in July. In Baden-Württemberg, the figure was 19 percent, or 900,000 people. Lower Saxony and the city-state of Bremen combined had 17 percent, or 580,000 people. “Short-time work is particularly prevalent in states with a major automotive and supplier industry,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

Short-time workers in Germany are experiencing a 43 percent shortfall in their working hours on average. In other words, they are working just 57 percent of their normal hours. For employees subject to social insurance contributions, this translates to a 7 percent loss in working hours, because 17 percent of this group are on short-time work. This is according to exclusive estimates by the ifo Institute for the month of July based on responses to its Business Survey. “The loss of working hours due to short-time work is considerable and shows that, for many sectors of the German economy, a return to normality is still a long way off,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of short-time workers in Germany fell to 5.6 million in July. In June it was 6.7 million, in May 7.3 million. This is the finding of exclusive calculations and estimates by the ifo Institute based on its Business Survey. Expressed as a share of all employees subject to social insurance contributions, short-time work shrank from 20 to 17 percent. “The decline has accelerated overall, but in some sectors short-time work is actually increasing,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

The number of companies with coronavirus-related short-time work in Germany is falling – albeit slowly. In July, 42 percent of the companies participating in the ifo Business Survey were still making use of short-time work. This figure was 46 percent in June and as high as 53 percent in May. “Short-time work is being reduced only very gradually,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. Manufacturing was still out in front in July with 57 percent of companies reporting short-time work, after 64 percent in May and in June.

Many companies are cutting their prices as a result of the coronavirus crisis. This is because reduced demand is taking a greater toll on these companies than supply-related problems. “Our findings suggest that economic policy measures to strengthen demand can significantly help stabilize the economy,” says Sebastian Link, ifo researcher and co-author of a study published in ifo Schnelldienst.

The number of short-time workers in Germany fell to 6.7 million in June, down from 7.3 million in May. This is the finding of exclusive calculations and estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey. Expressed as a share of all employees subject to social insurance contributions, short-time work shrank from 22 to 20 percent. “The decline is quite hesitant, and in some sectors short-time work is even increasing,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

Bayern ist das Bundesland mit den meisten Kurzarbeitern. Das geht aus exklusiven Umfragezahlen des ifo Instituts hervor. Demnach waren dort im Mai 1,469 Millionen Menschen auf Kurzarbeit oder 26 Prozent der sozialversicherungspflichtigen Beschäftigten. Im größeren Nordrhein-Westfalen waren es 1,466 Millionen oder 21 Prozent. Baden-Württemberg hat 1,09 Millionen Kurzarbeiter oder 23 Prozent. Es folgen Niedersachsen und Bremen mit zusammen 767.000 oder 23 Prozent. „Gerade in den Ländern mit bedeutender Automobil- und Zuliefererindustrie wird besonders viel Kurzarbeit gefahren“, sagt ifo-Arbeitsmarkt-Experte Sebastian Link.

Short-time work has affected numerous sectors of the German economy. The hospitality business and large parts of industry and trade have been particularly affected. These findings are based on exclusive ifo Institute survey figures for May. According to these figures, 796,000 people or 72 percent of employees subject to social insurance contributions in the hospitality industry were on short-time work, 513,000 or 46 percent in vehicle construction, and 289,000 or 44 percent in the automotive trade. “This historic number of short-time workers will initially prevent layoffs and company bankruptcies,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link.

In May, 7.3 million employees in Germany were on short-time work, according to exclusive ifo Institute calculations. “This number has never been so high,” says ifo labor market expert Sebastian Link. “During the financial crisis, short-time work peaked in May 2009 with just under 1.5 million people affected.” During the coronavirus crisis, companies originally reported they would introduce short-time work for 10.1 million employees. According to ifo Institute data, they then actually did so for 71.6 percent of that figure.

Almut Balleer, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Peter Zorn