Project

Impact of Demographic Developments on the Eastern German Housing Market

Client: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Project period: November 2015 – January 2017
Research Areas:
Project team: Prof. Joachim Ragnitz, Carolin Fritzsche, Jan Kluge, Marcel Thum, Lars Vandrei

Tasks

On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, this report was carried out together with the Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IÖR) and Gesine Marquardt (Professor for Social and Health Care Buildings and Design at TU Dresden). The interdisciplinary team analysed to which extent the Eastern German housing market is prepared for current and future demographic developments such as a shrinking and ageing society. The study describes socio-economic characteristics of Eastern Germany and the current situation of the Eastern German housing market. The rapidly ageing society poses a challenge for the Eastern German housing market with regard to age-appropriate living. Furthermore, the study describes the present system of subsidies and housing regulations.

Results

Key results of our study are:

  • The Eastern German housing market is characterized by high vacancy rates with great differences between urban and rural areas, an old housing stock and low ownership rates.
  • More than one million dwellings will be vacant until the year 2030 and a new wave of low occupancy is to be expected for shrinking regions.
  • There is a high demand for barrier-free residential space. In Eastern Germany; only 4.4 % of all dwellings with one or more elderly inhabitants have no or almost no barriers.
  • The german states set different priorities in their housing policies and already face many challenges due to the demographic development. There is significant need for political action in the future, especially with regard to the construction of barrier-free residential spaces.

Publication (in German)

Banse, Juliane, Clemens Deilmann, Carolin Fritzsche, Virginie Hörnig, Jan Kluge, Daniel Kretzschmar, Gesine Marquardt, Tom Motzek, Joachim Ragnitz, Marcel Thum and Lars Vandrei,Auswirkungen der demografischen Entwicklung auf den ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarkt, ifo Dresden Studien 78, ifo Institut, 2017 | PDF Download

Kretzschmar, Daniel, "Spezifika des ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarktes – Teil 3: Wohnungsleerstandsprognose", ifo Dresden berichtet 24 (04), 2017, 25–31| PDF Download

Hörnig, Virginie, Gesine Marquardt and Tom Motzek, "Spezifika des ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarktes – Teil 2: Altersgerechte Ausstattung und Barrierefreiheit des ostdeutschen Wohnungsbestandes", ifo Dresden berichtet 24 (03), 2017, 08–13 | PDF Download

Fritzsche, Carolin and Lars Vandrei, "Spezifika des ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarktes – Teil 1: Räumliche Unterschiede", ifo Dresden berichtet 24 (03), 2017, 03–07 | PDF Download

Events

Workshop „Szenarien der Wohnungsbestandsentwicklung in Ostdeutschland, 06 Jun. 2016, Berlin

Workshop „Handlungsoptionen für den ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarkt“, 12 Sep. 2016, Berlin

Contact
Portrait Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz

Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz

Managing Director ifo Dresden
Tel
+49(0)351/26476-17
Fax
+49(0)351/26476-20
Mail