Press release -

ifo Study: Conflict and Persecution are the Main Reasons to Flee to Europe

In 2015 and 2016, conflict and persecution pushed significantly higher numbers of people to flee to Europe than economic reasons or natural disasters did. This is the result of a study conducted by the ifo Institute that, for the first time, comprehensively analyzes survey data of refugees and irregular migrants who came to Europe in 2015 and 2016. A whopping 77 percent of respondents cite conflicts or persecution in their home country as their main reason for leaving, 21 percent economic reasons, and 2 percent natural disasters or other reasons. 

“Our results bring transparency and objectivity to the debate,” says Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for International Institutional Comparisons and Migration Research. “Contrary to conventional perception, we document that refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean routes in 2015 and 2016 and escaped conflicts are more educated relative to the national average in their country of origin. We also study how these people differ in terms of their demographic characteristics from those who remained in their country of origin. In addition, the information we provide helps to plan appropriate integration measures in the destination countries.”

Poutvaara and his co-author Cevat Giray Aksoy, a Principal Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, have analyzed the anonymized responses of migrants who arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean routes between 2015 and 2016. The reasons they give for leaving their home countries vary greatly depending on where they come from: more than 90 percent of respondents from Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, and Syria fled because of the conflicts in their home countries, while this was cited by less than 10 percent of the respondents from Algeria and Morocco.

Further results of the study provide insights into the socio-demographics of migrants: more than 80 percent of those interviewed in European transit centers are men. In addition, more young people leave their homeland than older ones. Refugees from crisis countries are on average better educated and have a higher income than those who stay at home. The same applies to women who have come for economic reasons; they also have a better education than the women who stayed in their country of origin. Of those surveyed in Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia, 61 percent indicated Germany as their destination.
 

Publication

Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?

Aksoy, Cevat Giray / Poutvaara, Panu
CESifo, Munich, 2019
CESifo Working Paper No. 7781

Contact
Prof. Panu Poutvaara Ph.D.

Prof. Panu Poutvaara Ph.D.

Director of the ifo Center for International Institutional Comparisons and Migration Research
Tel
+49(0)89/9224-1372
Fax
+49(0)89/907795-1372
Mail
Harald Schultz

Harald Schultz

Press Officer
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+49(0)89/9224-1218
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+49(0)89/907795-1218
Mail