ifo Export Expectations Slump (March 2022)

Sentiment among German exporters has slumped dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. The ifo Export Expectations slipped to minus 2.3 points, down from 17.0 points in February. To date, the only other time the index suffered a steeper decline was at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in April 2020 (minus 31.2 points). When considering the coming six months, companies were significantly more pessimistic, especially those with economic ties to Russia. The growth in exports will slow down noticeably.

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Export expectations fell across all manufacturing industries. Car manufacturers and their suppliers suffered a significant setback and are expecting exports to decline. This expectation is shared by the rubber and plastics industry as well as printing companies. In the chemical industry, positive and negative assessments are more or less balanced. The same applies to manufacturers of machinery and equipment. The electrical and electronics industry continues to anticipate rising international sales, but to a lesser extent than recently.

Clemens Fuest
President of the ifo Institute