Inflation Expected to Stay High Worldwide for the Next Few Years
Expected inflation rates are very high around the world. For 2022, the rate is forecast to average 7.7 percent. These are among the findings of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had participants from over 100 countries. “Inflation has arrived in all parts of the globe – and it’s here to stay,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The inflation rate expected in 2022 is about five percentage points higher than the rate reported by the World Bank for the period from 2010 to 2019.”
Participants see high inflation rates for the coming years as well. The survey asked about the years 2023 and 2026, and respondents said they expect global inflation rates to average 6.2 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. While these are declines compared to expectations for this year, they would still put rates well above the 2.7 percent figure reported by the World Bank for the 2010–2019 period.
Expectations for 2022 differ significantly from region to region. At over 20 percent, rates are particularly high in South America, North and East Africa, and West and Central Asia. In a global comparison, inflation expectations are low in North and Central America and large parts of Europe, for example, where the expected inflation rate is below 10 percent.
This special survey on inflation was conducted among 663 economists.
The graph shows the expected inflation rates on average worldwide for 2022 (7.7 percent), 2023 (6.2 percent), and 2026 (4.5 percent). The black dashed line shows the World Bank’s reported average inflation rate over the past decade (2010–2019) at 2.7 percent.
