Experts Expect Slight Growth Worldwide
Economic experts from all over the world are rather cautious about the economic development in their countries in 2023. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. Expectations for the individual countries average out to a global growth rate of 2.8 percent. “This means that our experts believe a global recession is becoming increasingly unlikely,” says ifo researcher Klaus Gründler.
At present, the expected growth rate is roughly 0.4 percentage points below the global growth rate in the ten years prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. When asked about the next few years, the experts surveyed are more confident, forecasting 3.3 percent growth next year and as much as 3.8 percent in 2026.
In contrast to the increasingly optimistic expectations in the rest of the world, experts in Europe are less confident: they expect low growth rates in 2023, in particular in Eastern Europe (0.1 percent) and Western Europe (0.7 percent). These will align only slowly with the overall positive global expectations by 2026.
Slight growth is also expected by experts in North America (1.6 percent) and South Asia (1.7 percent).
Experts in Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, however, are much more optimistic than in the rest of the world. They expect growth of 8.0 percent in East Africa, 4.7 percent in Southeast Asia, 4.7 percent in Central Africa, and 5.2 percent in West Africa. Excluding these high growth regions, the expected growth rate for the world in the current year would be just 1.7 percent.
The survey was conducted from December 7 to December 21, 2022, with 1,537 participants from 133 countries.
Note: The figure shows the expected global average economic growth for 2023 (2.8 percent), 2024 (3.3 percent), and 2026 (3.8 percent). The median of the averages at the country level is shown.
Economic Experts Survey: Global Pessimistic Growth Expectations for 2023 Brighten by 2026 – Except in Europe (Q4 2022)
Do economic experts around the world expect a recession in 2023? And what are the long-term expectations for economic development? This round of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ expectations for economic growth at the global level.
