The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation

According to estimates by the ifo Institute, the economic costs of the partial shutdown of the economy due to the coronavirus epidemic will amount to between EUR 255 and 495 billion for a shutdown period of two months – depending on the scenario used as a basis. The GDP growth rate will fall by between 7.2 and 11.2 percentage points. If the shutdown lasts three months, the costs go up to EUR 354–729 billion. On the labor market, up to 1.8 million jobs subject to social security contributions could be cut and more than 6 million employees could be subject to short-time work.