Working Paper
What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia
Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Löschel, Benjamin Moll, Andreas Peichl, Karen Pittel, Moritz Schularick
ifo Institute, Munich, 2022
EconPol Policy Report 36
ifo Institute, Munich, 2022
EconPol Policy Report 36
This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).