Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany rose considerably in March. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany climbed to 90.0 points, up from 88.6 points in February. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were somewhat better than the previous month, and they also raised their business expectations slightly.

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany saw a small decline in February. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany fell from 89.0 points in January to 88.5 points in February. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were somewhat worse than the previous month and also lowered their business expectations slightly.

Investitionen in qualifizierte und moderne Arbeitsplätze erhöhen die Produktivität von Unternehmen in Ostdeutschland. „In den Fokus staatlicher Förderung sollte das Vermitteln relevanter Qualifikationen, besserer technischer Ausstattung der Arbeitsplätze und Entwicklung und Einsatz arbeitssparender Technologien kommen“, sagt Joachim Ragnitz von der Niederlassung Dresden des ifo Instituts in einem Aufsatz der aktuellen Ausgabe von „ifo Dresden berichtet“. So kann insbesondere für Ostdeutschland der notwendige Strukturwandel beschleunigt werden.

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany rose slightly in January. Compared to December, the barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany increased by 0.4 points to 89.0 points. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were unchanged from the previous month and raised their business expectations slightly.

The ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch has spoken out in favor of linking the retirement age to rising life expectancy. “Some of our neighboring countries have already decided to do this, such as the Netherlands, Sweden, and Finland,” says ifo pension expert Joachim Ragnitz.

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany fell considerably in December. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany dropped to 88.6 points, down from 90.6 points in the previous month. Among the companies surveyed, both their assessments of the current situation and their business expectations deteriorated substantially.

Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.

According to the ifo Institute, most of the German government’s coronavirus aid programs have achieved their objectives and were well justified. This is the finding of a comprehensive analysis of how the various programs were used. “The liquidity assistance for companies faced with bans on doing business and the expanded short-time work regulations were particularly fitting, because they were timely, targeted, and temporary,” says Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “Certain measures, however, such as the temporary reduction in the VAT rate or the granting of loans to already weakened companies, must in retrospect be seen in a critical light. These weren’t aimed specifically at companies that were in trouble as a result of the coronavirus.”

The ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany rose slightly in November. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany reached 90.7 points, up from 90.0 points in the previous month. Among the companies surveyed, both their assessments of the current situation and their business expectations improved somewhat.

The standardization of the pension system leaves pension contributors in eastern Germany worse off than they were before, according to calculations by the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “In 2018, an employee with an average income in eastern Germany was entitled to a pension of EUR 37.60 per month for each pension point. Now it’s only EUR 31.51 per month for each pension point,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden.

The ifo Business Climate Index for eastern Germany rose minimally in October. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany improved by 0.1 point to 89.9 points. While the eastern German companies surveyed assessed their current situation as slightly worse, they also raised their business expectations a little.

Two-thirds of the wage gap between eastern and western Germany can be explained by differences in economic structure. “Many people in eastern Germany work in typical low-wage industries, and large manufacturing companies that pay well are hardly represented here,” says Jannik Nauerth from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. Today, 33 years after reunification, employees in Germany’s eastern states (with the exception of Berlin) earn around 15 percent less per hour on average than their colleagues in western Germany. But after accounting for structural effects, the figure is only 5 percent.

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany saw a small decline in September. The barometer of business sentiment for the entire regional economy slipped to 89.6 points, down from 90.4 points in August. The eastern German companies surveyed reported slightly worse business than in the previous month and lowered their expectations somewhat for the months ahead.

The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany saw a small decline in August. The barometer of business sentiment for the entire regional economy slipped to 90.4 points, down from 91.5 points in July. The eastern German companies surveyed were noticeably less satisfied with their current business situation, but did not change their business expectations for the coming months.

Expanding the obligation to pay contributions will not be enough to finance the social security systems in Germany in the long term, according to calculations by the ifo Institute based on the Socio-Economic Panel. “Discussions are ongoing concerning an expansion of the obligation to pay contributions to all types of income, in other words to include interest, profit, and rental income. However, the additional revenue this would generate would be negligible,” says Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany fell once again in July. The Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy dropped from 93.4 to 91.4 points. This means that the barometer of business sentiment fell for the third time in a row. Survey participants were noticeably less satisfied with their current business and slightly scaled back their business expectations for the coming six months.

The economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, like that in Germany as a whole, entered a weak phase at the turn of 2022–2023. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is likely to be 0.4% below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects GDP to contract by 0.2% (Germany: −0.4%). This is despite a trend toward recovery over the further course of the year. Next year, economic output in those regions will grow again slightly by 1.3 and 1.2%, respectively (Germany: +1.5%).

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany saw a decidedly strong decrease in June. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 93.3 points, down from 96.0 points in May. While the companies surveyed lowered their assessments of the current situation slightly, their outlook for the next six months worsened drastically.

Sentiment among eastern German companies cooled a bit in May. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 96.2 points, down from 96.5 points in April. The companies surveyed slightly raised their assessments of the current situation, while their outlook for the next six months worsened noticeably.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved slightly in April. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 96.5 points, up from 95.4 points in March. The companies surveyed adjusted their assessments of the current situation a little downward, while their outlook for the next six months improved considerably.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved slightly in March. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 95.4 points, up from 94.8 points in February. The companies surveyed adjusted their assessments of the current situation slightly downward, while their outlook for the next six months improved somewhat.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, some German companies continued to increase their sales prices more than was indicated by the development of purchase prices. “These companies have taken advantage of the situation to increase their profits sharply. This is especially true of companies in the trade, hospitality, and transport sectors, as well as in the construction industry. In agriculture and forestry, on the other hand, which were among the inflation winners in the summer, rising costs have recently had a stronger impact,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. Overall, the trend had slowed in the fourth quarter.

The best way to combat the shortage of skilled workers is by boosting productivity. This is a recommendation from Prof. Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. “When there is a labor shortage, it increases the incentive to make better use of the workers that are still available: by imparting new knowledge, upgrading technical equipment in the workplace, or using labor-saving methods,” writes Ragnitz in an article for the journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved markedly in February. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 94.7 points, up from 92.6 points in January. The companies surveyed raised their overall assessments of the current situation appreciably, while their outlook for the next six months improved noticeably.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved marginally in January. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 92.6 points, up from 92.0 points in December. The companies surveyed lowered their assessments of the current situation slightly, while their outlook for the next six months improved a little.

During the Covid years from 2020 to 2022, around 180,000 more people died in Germany than would have been normally expected. This is the finding of calculations by the ifo Institute. “The elderly were especially poorly protected,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. In the 80+ age group alone, 116,000 more people died than expected; in the 60–79 age group, the figure was 51,000. In the large age group of 30–59, on the other hand, there were only 12,000 additional deaths, and only about 900 among those aged 0–29.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany once again improved strongly in December. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 92.0 points, up from 89.4 points in November. The companies surveyed raised their overall assessments of the current situation perceptibly, while their outlook for the next six months improved considerably. The economy is on an upward trend.

A mild recession is expected in eastern Germany and Saxony in the winter half year. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is thus forecast to be 0.2 percent below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects output to remain unchanged (Germany: −0.1 percent). In the current year, by contrast, economic output in those regions will still grow by 2.1 and 1.7 percent, respectively (Germany: +1.8 percent).

Higher prices for energy and inputs alone do not explain the extent of inflation in Germany. “Rather, companies in some sectors of the economy appear to have used the price increases to expand their profits. This is especially true in trade, agriculture, and construction,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. This was suggested by data from official statistics on economic performance, used by ifo to determine differences between nominal and price-adjusted value added. This allows conclusions to be drawn about price increases that were not caused by higher input costs.

Der ifo-Forscher Joachim Ragnitz hat sich dafür ausgesprochen, mit der Wirtschaftsförderung in Sachsen künftig stärker die Folgen des Bevölkerungsrückgangs abzufedern. „Andere Programme, vor allem in der Beschäftigungspolitik, könnten in Erwartung weiter abnehmender Arbeitslosenzahlen verringert werden“, sagte er am Montag in Dresden. „Angesichts knapper Kassen könnte man da sicherlich noch Geld einsparen.“

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved markedly in November. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 89.3 points, up from 86.3 points in October. The companies surveyed raised their overall assessments of the current situation perceptibly. Their outlook for the next six months improved appreciably.

Sentiment among companies in Saxony improved slightly in October. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 86.2 points, up from 85.2 points in September. The companies surveyed lowered their assessments of the current situation somewhat while they raised their expectations for the next six months considerably.

The ifo Institute has warned that material shortages in German manufacturing could persist over a longer period of time. “To some extent, this reflects lasting developments that are the result of global changes in the structure of production – such as the increasing demand for semiconductors or industrial raw materials,” writes ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz in Dresden. “Only part of the shortages are due to a chain of crises that will hopefully ease in the coming months; for example, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic or the Ukraine war.”

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany deteriorated drastically in September. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 85.2 points, down from 90.9 points in August. This is its lowest value since May 2020. A steep downward trend was apparent both in participating companies’ assessments of the current situation and in their outlook.

The mood of eastern German companies cooled off a bit in August. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 90.8 points, down from 92.2 points in July. The survey participants’ assessments of their current situation declined considerably, and their outlook became somewhat more negative.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany cooled significantly in July. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 92.1 points, down from 94.1 points in June. The survey participants’ assessments of their current situation declined slightly, and their outlook became noticeably more negative.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany saw a slight decrease in June. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 94.1 points, down from 94.5 points in May. The survey participants’ assessments of their current situation improved marginally. At the same time, their outlook became slightly more negative. The gap between situation and expectations is widening, which is an expression of great uncertainty.

The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since December 2021. Nevertheless, the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to continue expanding. In the current year, economic output in those regions will grow by 2.9 and 1.8 percent respectively (Germany: 2.5 percent). Assuming that it is still possible to avoid an undersupply of natural gas this coming winter, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be 3.5 percent higher year over year in 2023; in Saxony, gross domestic product will increase by 3.3 percent (Germany: 3.7 percent). 

Establishing government agencies in structurally weak regions does little to revitalize those regions: it rarely attracts new workers who could provide additional economic stimulus. However, it does create jobs for the population already living in a region. Relocating an agency that requires highly skilled employees and professionals may impact its ability to get work done.

The mood of eastern German companies held more or less steady in May. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy hovered at 94.5 points. The survey participants’ assessments of their current situation improved considerably, even as they revised their outlook markedly downward. Such strongly contrasting developments are likely due to the easing of the coronavirus situation and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Despite the Russian attack on Ukraine, significantly fewer eastern German companies fear for their survival. In a survey conducted by the ifo Institute in April 2022, 6.2 percent of respondents felt that their survival was threatened. This is half the rate from the previous survey in January 2022 (13.9 percent). 

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved considerably once again in April. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose from 92.8 to 96.5 points, driven by the marked rise in business expectations. Assessments of the current business situation remained largely in line with the previous month. Eastern German companies seem to have coped well with the initial shock of the Russian war of aggression.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany has worsened considerably since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy plunged from 99.9 to 93.2 points. This drop was due mainly to the drastic decline in business expectations across all economic sectors. Assessments of the current situation also dipped, though not as massively as expectations.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany continued improve in February. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy jumped to 100.5 points, up from 97.1 points in January. Survey participants reported a strong improvement in their assessments of the situation. At the same time, they raised their expectations considerably compared to the previous month. This positive development was driven primarily by trade and the service sector, which seem to see light at the end of the tunnel. However, the survey was completed before the Ukraine crisis came to a head.

The ifo Institute has come out in favor of gearing land development permits more closely to the needs of the economy. “If new apartments have to be built in a growing major city, you also need land to build them on,” says Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “The same applies when municipalities want to designate new business parks or build roads. Restricting land use could slow a region’s growth and drive up prices.” 

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany improved slightly in January. The downward trend that has persisted since last summer appears to have halted for the time being. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy rose to 97.0 points, up from 96.1 points in December. Participating companies reported a marked decline in their assessments of the current situation. At the same time, they raised their expectations substantially compared to the previous month. This development was driven by manufacturing and the service sector.

People aged 80 and over accounted for nearly two-thirds of Germany’s “excess mortality” attributable to the coronavirus in 2020 and 2021. Another 30 percent of these deaths were in the 60 to 79 age group. In contrast, younger age groups accounted for just 7 percent. These are the results of new calculations by the ifo Institute two years on from the start of the pandemic.

Among eastern German companies, 14 percent believe the coronavirus pandemic threatens their survival, finds an ifo survey for December. This figure is barely higher than in the summer, when it stood at 13.8 percent. “Surprisingly, the new contact restrictions didn’t further increase the threat to companies’ survival as might have been expected,” says Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany fell significantly in December. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy continued to slide, falling to 96.0 points, down from 97.5 points in November. Participating companies reported a marked decline in their assessments of the current situation. At the same time, their expectations dropped somewhat compared to the previous month.

A good 30 years after German reunification, funding for investment projects can be scaled back in some eastern German regions due to their positive development. Conversely, parts of western Germany need more support. “The areas surrounding Berlin in particular, together with the areas around Dresden, Leipzig, and Jena, have developed so well that funding there can be reduced. At the same time, some structurally weak regions in western Germany are being upgraded to a higher aid category. These include the Ruhr area, Saarland, and the Pirmasens labor market region,” says economic expert Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. 

The coronavirus pandemic has slowed the economic recovery in eastern Germany and Saxony. In the current year, economic output in those regions will grow by 2.6 and 2.7 percent respectively (Germany: 2.5 percent). In 2022, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be 3.2 percent higher year over year; in Saxony, gross domestic product will increase by 3.4 percent (Germany: 3.7 percent).

The ifo Institute has criticized the approach being taken to subsidize Germany’s lignite regions. “Judging by the projects that the Länder have so far earmarked for funding, it doesn’t seem that their actions are particularly focused,” says Joachim Ragnitz of the ifo Institute in Dresden. The traffic light coalition envisions phasing out coal “ideally” by as soon as 2030. “That means new economic structures must be successfully established in the three lignite regions before that date,” Ragnitz says.

Fundamental problems with Germany’s pension funds must not be left until after the next round of federal elections, said ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz in Dresden on Wednesday. “Coalition officials aren’t addressing the real problem: with baby boomers now starting to retire, the current pension level cannot be maintained indefinitely. As a result, after 2026, pension contribution rates will have to rise to more than 20 percent of gross wages.” This will directly burden Germany’s shrinking working-age generation, he said, adding that introducing a tax-financed capital stock into the statutory pension insurance system wouldn’t solve the problem either. 

Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany deteriorated noticeably in November. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy continued to slide, falling to 97.4 points, down from 98.7 points in October. Participating companies reported a marked decline in their assessments of the current situation. At the same time, their expectations dropped somewhat compared to the previous month.

The ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz finds the tax-financed pension capital stock of EUR 10 billion proposed by Germany’s new “traffic light” coalition to be pointless.

Pension increases should be decoupled from wage development. This is what ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz calls for in an article in ifo Dresden berichtet. “Ensuring that pensions rise more slowly than wages is the only way to spare the coffers and not overburden tax and contribution payers. With many baby boomers soon to retire, the political decisions of recent years will result in a gigantic financial hole opening up.” He adds that an additional 2.6 percent of economic output will have to be spent on pensions by 2050.

Companies in eastern Germany now feel that their survival is less threatened by the coronavirus pandemic, according to an ifo Institute survey conducted in June 2021. Only 13.8 percent of the companies surveyed still said their business was at risk from the coronavirus pandemic. In February, 19.4 percent were fearing for their survival.

Things are looking up for the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, where growth will reach 2.4 and 3.1 percent in the current year (Germany: 3.3 percent). “We expect the economy to recover quickly and strongly,” says economic expert Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “The economic recovery should be complete by the end of 2021.”

Germany’s next federal government should refrain from providing additional pension benefits, as these would drive up the already growing expenses for old-age provision. This is what ifo researchers Joachim Ragnitz, Felix Rösel, and Marcel Thum call for in an article for ifo Schnelldienst. If pension financing is to remain stable, they write, an increase in the retirement age cannot be avoided in the long term. It should be linked to life expectancy or to years of life with good health.

The industries particularly affected by the crisis have different assessments of the German government’s coronavirus aid. While the hospitality industry finds it “satisfactory,” retailers are much more critical and weren’t able to file as many aid claims. These are the findings from the latest ifo Business Survey for April 2021. “Aid is at least reaching the hospitality industry,” says economic expert Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch, “which explains the positive assessments here.”

Germany has been unable to prevent an increase in mortality in the 60–79 and 80-and-over age groups during the coronavirus pandemic, according to mortality figures examined by the ifo Institute. “In contrast, government measures have worked for younger age groups, where mortality wasn’t higher than usual until November,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.

Next year, the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony is expected to grow by 3.6 and 4.1 percent respectively (Germany: plus 4.2 percent growth). However, the renewed lockdown means that the economic recovery is taking longer than had been expected in the summer. In 2020, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be minus 4.4 percent lower; in Saxony, gross domestic product is even expected to shrink by minus 5.0 percent (Germany: minus 5.1 percent lower). This means the coronavirus-related slump will turn out to have been somewhat weaker than assumed in the ifo Institute’s summer forecast.

Die Corona-Pandemie hinterlässt tiefe Spuren auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Die Arbeitslosigkeit steigt insbesondere dort, wo vorher schon viele Menschen keine Beschäftigung hatten – wie große Teile Ostdeutschlands oder auch die altindustrialisierten Regionen des Westens. Eher glimpflich sind bisher hingegen südwestdeutsche Regionen davongekommen. „Die regionale Verteilung spiegelt unter anderem die unterschiedliche Branchenstruktur in den einzelnen Landkreisen wider“, sagt Joachim Ragnitz, stellvertretender Leiter der ifo Niederlassung Dresden.

Die Unternehmen in Ostdeutschland sehen sich in der aktuellen Corona-Krise deutlich häufiger in ihrer Existenz gefährdet als in Gesamtdeutschland. Nach einer aktuellen Umfrage des ifo Instituts sehen 20 Prozent aller ostdeutschen Unternehmen mit großen Sorgen in die Zukunft.  

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is the German federal state that has approved the largest amount of coronavirus credits. The most populous state has approved credit authorizations amounting to 33 percent of its 2019 budget, equivalent to EUR 25 billion. It is followed by Bavaria with 31 percent (EUR 20 billion) and Lower Saxony with 27 percent (about EUR 9 billion). These findings are from an article by ifo researchers for ifo Schnelldienst 11/2020. “The volume of credit authorizations and the funds already drawn upon would seem to be a reaction to this extraordinary situation,” write ifo researchers Niklas Potrafke, Joachim Ragnitz, et al. „The debt brake has to be observed as soon as would be responsible, given the development of the business cycle.“

The ifo Institute fears that the coronavirus will cause lasting damage to the German economy. The problem lies in a reluctance to invest, writes Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch, in an essay for ifo Schnelldienst. “Real investment in equipment was already growing extremely weakly in 2019. According to economic forecasts, it will remain minimal until 2022. This may lead to an insufficient number of new jobs being created.”

The ifo Institute expects economic output in eastern Germany for the current year to slump by 5.9 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 6.4 percent, owing to the larger proportion of industry there. However, the fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 6.7 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively (Germany: 6.4 percent), and will return to its pre-crisis level before the end of the year.

In der Coronakrise verzeichnen 77 Prozent aller ostdeutschen Unternehmen Umsatzrückgänge, in Westdeutschland sind es 85 Prozent. Im Durchschnitt brachen die Umsätze der betroffenen ostdeutschen Unternehmen um 23 Prozent ein (Westdeutschland 25 Prozent). Betroffen sind vor allem das Verarbeitende Gewerbe und die Dienstleister.

The far-reaching shutdown of economic life in Germany and the interruption of cross-border supply chains are affecting all of Germany’s Länder to roughly the same extent. This represents a substantial difference compared to the 2009 financial crisis, as an ifo scenario calculation showed. Even if the immediate economic constraints are further eased in May following the German federal government’s recent decisions, it will take some time for GDP to return to its original level.

The ifo Institute has described the results of the Pension Commission as insufficient. “The Commission has clearly shown that the financing of the statutory pension is not secure in the long term. However, it does not draw any further conclusions from this finding,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. “It leaves the development of solutions to the financing gap to a yet-to-be-established pension advisory board.”

Das ifo Institut lehnt die heute vom Kabinett beschlossene Grundrente ab. „Die Einführung der Grundrente in ihrer jetzigen Form lässt sich eigentlich nur dadurch begründen, dass damit der Koalitionsfrieden gewahrt werden soll“, sagt Joachim Ragnitz, stellvertretender Leiter der Niederlassung Dresden des ifo Instituts. „Die Grundrente kann konstruktionsbedingt nur einen geringen Beitrag zur Beseitigung von Altersarmut leisten.“

Immer mehr Arbeitsplätze in Sachsen werden durch ausländische Arbeitnehmer besetzt: Rund 44% des Beschäftigungszuwachses in den Jahren 2014 bis 2019 entfiel auf Arbeitskräfte mit einer ausländischen Nationalität; allein im Zeitraum 2018/2019 konnte nur noch ein Viertel der neu geschaffenen Arbeitsplätze mit deutschen Arbeitnehmern besetzt werden.

The ifo Institute expects economic growth of 0.8 percent in eastern Germany for the current year, slightly higher than for Germany as a whole (0.5 percent). In Saxony, growth is likely to be significantly lower, at 0.3 percent, due to the continuing recession in industry. In the coming year, however, economic growth will accelerate again, at rates of 1.4 percent in eastern Germany and 1.2 percent in Saxony – also above the figures for Germany as a whole (1.1 percent). However, some of this growth is due to the fact that there are more working days in 2020.

The ifo Institute takes a critical view of Germany’s basic pension. “Ultimately, the SPD has successfully achieved its goal of securing an additional social benefit for people with low pension entitlements of their own,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch. Above all, Ragnitz criticizes the fact that pension amounts are no longer based on previously paid contributions.

Die verbreitete Unzufriedenheit mit dem „Aufbau Ost“ ist 30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall durch die Fakten nicht gedeckt. „Die realen verfügbaren Einkommen in Ostdeutschland liegen bei rund 92 Prozent des westdeutschen Niveaus. Und in vielen Regionen wird ein höheres Wohlstandsniveau erreicht als in weiten Teilen Nordrhein-Westfalens oder Niedersachsens“, sagt Joachim Ragnitz von der Niederlassung Dresden des ifo Instituts.

The ifo Institute in Dresden, together with its partners, has proposed new criteria for German regional funding from 2021.

The ifo Institute does not consider the SPD’s proposal to introduce a non-means-tested basic pension in Germany a suitable way to combat poverty in old age.  “This basic pension is a deceptive package. It puts only a small group of retired pensioners in a better position, namely those who earned little during their working life but are otherwise covered, for example through their spouse or their income from assets,” says Joachim Ragnitz, managing director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.

Die Diskussion um eine mögliche Batterieproduktion in der Lausitz setzt laut ifo Institut den falschen Fokus. „Man sollte nicht versuchen, regionalpolitische Ziele mit industriepolitischen Instrumenten zu lösen“, sagte ifo-Präsident Clemens Fuest in Dresden.

The ifo Institute has revised its forecast for eastern Germany for the current year downwards by 0.4 percentage points. The forecast for Saxony is 0.5 percentage points lower than it was in winter. The economy in eastern Germany and Saxony is expected to grow by 0.9 and 0.7 percent respectively. In 2020, however, growth should accelerate to 1.5 and 1.6 percent respectively.

Germany’s economy will grow much more slowly over the next 15 years than in the past. The reason for this is the worsening shortage of labor resulting from demographic change. These are the results of a recent study conducted by the ifo Institute for the Bertelsmann Stiftung.

L’est de l’Allemagne a besoin de beaucoup plus d’immigrants des pays extérieurs à l’Union européenne pour résoudre le manque prévisible de main-d’œuvre. « Dans certaines régions de cette partie de l’Allemagne, le nombre des actifs devrait baisser environ d’un tiers d’ici 2030 », indique Joachim Ragnitz, directeur adjoint de l’agence dresdoise de l’Institut ifo dans un article à paraître ce jeudi dans le bimensuel en langue allemande ifo Dresden berichtet.

Apr 16, 2019

Le gouvernement fédéral allemand a formé une commission de haut niveau dans le but de supprimer les inégalités. Celle-ci est chargée de recommander, d’ici la fin du premier semestre, des mesures permettant d’instaurer des « conditions de vie équivalentes » à la ville comme à la campagne. Marcel Thum et Joachim Ragnitz, de l’agence de Dresde de l’institut ifo, viennent de critiquer ce choix dans un essai récemment publié.

The ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany showed strong improvement in March. The ifo Business Climate Index for the economy in eastern Germany rose from 100.4 to 102.5 points. Both the assessments of the current situation and the business expectations of the survey participants improved noticeably. The downward trend in the business confidence indicator for eastern Germany has thus been interrupted.

The ifo Business Climate for eastern Germany fell sharply in February. The business climate index for the economy in the east fell from 102.1 to 100.2 points. The measure of business confidence in eastern Germany has thus continued the downward trend of recent months. The most recent decline is due to the sharp downward corrections of the assessments of the current business situation. Business expectations also declined somewhat.

Die von Sozialminister Hubertus Heil vorgeschlagene Grundrente verfehlt die Ziele, die sich die Politik selbst gesteckt hat. Das zeigen neue Berechnungen der Dresdner Niederlassung des ifo Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung. „Bei den wirklich Bedürftigen liegt die aufgewertete Rente weiterhin unter dem Niveau der Grundsicherung im Alter“, sagen die Forscher Joachim Ragnitz und Marcel Thum vom ifo Dresden. „Die Berechnungen zeigen vielmehr, dass die wesentlichen Zuwächse bei der Rente für bedürftige Altersrentner aus dem Freibetrag resultieren. Der erfordert aber weiterhin einen Antrag auf Grundsicherung im Alter.“

The ifo Institute in Dresden, together with its partners, has proposed new criteria for German regional funding from 2021.

"LL'Institut ifo de Dresde et ses partenaires ont proposé de nouveaux critères pour le financement régional allemand à partir de 2021.

The ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany remained unchanged in the frosty month of January, holding steady at 101.9 points. The survey participants were noticeably more satisfied with their current business, but their expectations for the coming six months weakened noticeably.

The ifo Institute takes a critical view of the recommendations of the German Coal Commission on structural change. "The commission's report is largely characterised by the idea that politicians have a responsibility to create new economic structures in a region. However, all experience with an active structural policy shows that the state can at best set the framework conditions for private investors, first and foremost by expanding infrastructures and supplementing this with the use of funding policy instruments. If the commission's recommendations were adopted by politicians, there would be a great danger that a lot of money would awaken false and ultimately illusory ideas," says Joachim Ragnitz, Deputy Managing Director of the ifo Dresden branch.

The ifo Institute favours the slow phase-out of lignite. "In terms of energy policy, there is much to be said for a gradual phase-out," notes ifo expert Joachim Ragnitz. He believes that a rapid phase-out could pose significant supply risks, as there are still no alternatives to secure the base load. In his view, importing coal or nuclear power from neighbouring countries is not a viable solution. According to Ragnitz, "It would be short-sighted in terms of climate policy to shut down modern lignite-fired power plants in eastern Germany, and operate outdated plants in Poland or the Czech Republic instead in order to secure Germany’s energy supply.”

Die Tarifverdienste zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland sind inzwischen weitgehend angeglichen. Da mehr als die Hälfte der Beschäftigten aber nicht von Tarifverträgen erfasst werden, liegen die durchschnittlichen Stundenlöhne in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern (ohne Berlin) auch heute noch nur bei rund 85 Prozent des westdeutschen Durchschnittslohns. In vielen Branchen der gewerblichen Wirtschaft ist der Ost-West-Unterschied der Stundenlöhne sogar noch deutlich größer und liegt zum Beispiel in den meisten Zweigen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes bei rund 25 Prozent. Politik, Medien und Öffentlichkeit empfinden dies häufig als Zeichen einer fortwährenden Benachteiligung der Menschen in Ostdeutschland und sehen politischen Handlungsbedarf.

Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft stehen vor einem nachhaltigen Umbau. Die neu entstehenden Strukturen bieten Ostdeutschland neue Chancen. Dabei sollten die ostdeutschen Länder an einem Strang ziehen, erklärt Joachim Ragnitz.

Grünes Licht für die ersten Strukturwandel-Projekte. Warum einige der Projekte in den Kohle-Revieren auf Kritik stoßen, erklärt Joachim Ragnitz.

Joachim Ragnitz

40 Jahre lang waren Ost- und Westdeutschland geteilt, seit 30 Jahren sind die beiden Landesteile wiedervereinigt. Das Erbe der sozialistischen Planwirtschaft ist jedoch bis heute spürbar: In der divergierenden Bevölkerungsentwicklung zwischen Ost und West, bei der Wirtschaftskraft und davon abgeleitet bei den Löhnen, in dem Gefühl vieler Menschen in Ostdeutschland, nicht wirklich dazuzugehören. Was dabei aber völlig unterzugehen droht, ist die Tatsache, dass es den Ostdeutschen in der Breite noch nie so gut ging, wie heute und dass auch die Unterschiede in den materiellen Lebensverhältnissen zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland inzwischen recht klein sind. Natürlich gibt es diese Unterschiede noch – aber regionale Wohlstandsunterschiede gibt es auch im Westen, und dort sind sie kleinräumig sogar noch viel größer als jene zwischen Ost und West.

Joachim Ragnitz