EU enlargement and the future of the welfare state

The eastern expansion of the EU resembles German unification in its monentousness. Whereas the latter led to a 26% increase in the population of the Federal Republic, the former will increase the population of the EU by 28% if all ten entry aspirants are accepted. A special problem will be posed by migration. By view of the existing wage differences between eastern and western European countries, a massive westward migration can be expected after EU expansion. A temporary east-to-west migration up to the time that the eastern countries have created an efficient capital stock makes economic sense if it is driven by wage differences and meets with a flexible labour market. Migration does not make economic sense, however, if, and to the extent to which, it is induced by the current social assistance systems. Moreover, welfare-motivated migration would create competition western European states to frighten off potential migrants, which would lead to an erosion of the traditional social welfare state. If the EU plan incorporated a limitation of the free movement of labour, the beneficial migration would also be stopped. A better solution would be to limit access to the western social systems, at least for a transitional period in order to filter out migration induced by differing social standards. An EU-wide application of the home-country principle in the granting of social benefits would achieve this goal.