Economic Experts Survey: Slightly Improved Assessment of Economic Policy Worldwide (Q3 2022)
Economic policy worldwide is assessed as slightly better in Q3 2022 than in the previous quarter. The exceptions are Eastern Europe, West Africa, and South America. Political performance is also viewed much more critically in these regions. These are the findings of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute (IWP) on a quarterly basis.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: "How do you rate your country's current economic policy?" and "How well does your country's current economic policy address the challenges of the future? The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from -100 ("worse") to +100 ("better"). The data are first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
South America, West Africa, and Eastern Europe Are the Losers in the Assessment of Economic Policy
The assessments of economic experts on current economic policy in their countries differ at the global level. In Northern, Western, and Southern Europe, they expect a slight improvement compared with the previous quarter. This contrasts with Eastern Europe; there, the current economic policy situation is assessed more negatively compared with the previous quarter. The picture is similar in the Americas. While economic policy in North and South America is assessed more positively than in Q2 2022, participants in South America expect a significant deterioration. There is also a decline for one region in Africa: in West Africa, participants are more pessimistic about the economic policy situation. However, the other regions in Africa show slight to noticeable improvements compared with the previous quarter. Participants in East Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia have also become more confident.
The figure shows the regional average of the questions "How do you rate your country's current economic policy? (left panel) and "How well does your country's current economic policy address the challenges of the future?" (right panel). The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from -100 ("worse") to +100 ("better"). The data are first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Future Challenges Are Major Drivers of Economic Policy
The assessment of economic policy is made up of equal parts of the experts’ assessments of current economic policy and the assessment of economic policy with regard to future challenges. In comparing the two dimensions, it is clear that current economic policy is rated better on average than policy regarding future challenges. At the same time, it can be seen that the declines for the “losing” regions can be attributed primarily to the management of future challenges.
In Africa (especially in East Africa, but also in Central and South Africa), the orientation of economic policy toward future challenges is rated much more positively. A major exception is West Africa, where declines are indicated in both dimensions. However, the assessment of future challenges is more important than that of current economic policy. The same pattern can be seen in South America and Eastern Europe, where declines can be seen in both dimensions.
In general, however, it is also clear that although the experts on average rate the orientation of economic policy to future challenges worse than current economic policy, economic policy in large parts of Asia, Africa, and Europe is judged to be more forward-looking than in the previous quarter.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: "How do you rate the performance of your country's current government?" and "How do you rate the stability of your country's current political situation? The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from -100 ("worse") to +100 ("better"). The data are first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Changes in the Economic Policy Outlook Are Also Reflected in the Political Climate
According to the economic experts, the global political climate has improved compared with the previous quarter. Particularly in North and Central America, but also in East Asia, East Africa, and Oceania, the political mood is brightening considerably, according to the participants. There are differences within Europe: while the political situation improved in Northern, Western, and Southern Europe, the political climate in Eastern Europe is assessed as worse than in the previous quarter. Comparable to the assessment of current economic policy, experts in West Africa and South America also rate the political situation noticeably more negatively than in the previous quarter.
The figure shows the regional average of the questions "How do you rate the performance of your country's current government? (left panel) and "How do you rate the stability of your country's current political situation?" (right panel). The questions asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from -100 ("worse") to +100 ("better"). The data are first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Government Performance Heterogeneous, but Political Stability Convincing
The assessment of the political climate is made up of equal parts of the experts’ assessments of government performance and political stability. On average, both political stability and government performance improved in the participants’ perception compared with the previous quarter. However, the assessment of political stability fared significantly better. Governments in West and North Africa, South America, and Eastern Europe were primarily responsible for the poorer assessment of political performance. The experts perceived consistent improvements in political performance among governments in Asia. The ratings of governments in Oceania and North America also improved. According to the experts, political stability improved in large parts of Asia (with the exception of South Asia) and in Oceania, in some cases significantly. Political instability, on the other hand, became worse in South and West Africa and South Asia. However, the declines are moderate. There are also pronounced regional differences in the Americas: South and North America remain unchanged, while Central America shows clear signs of political stabilization.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES), a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute, records the assessments of international economic experts on current economic policy and the political climate. A total of 1,687 respondents from 129 countries participated in the survey from September 7 to September 21, 2022.
