Working Paper
New Evidence on the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area
Sascha Möhrle
ifo Institute, Munich, 2020
ifo Working Paper No. 337
ifo Institute, Munich, 2020
ifo Working Paper No. 337
This paper examines the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area based on data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis shows that the overall distribution of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts has changed considerably following the global financial crisis. Moreover, micro level expectations of professional forecasters are found to be sensitive to short-term economic developments. These patterns suggest that euro area inflation expectations are significantly less anchored to the ECB’s definition of price stability in recent years compared to the pre-crisis period.
Keywords: Inflation expectations, anchoring, euro area, ECB, financial crisis
JEL Classification: E310, E502, E580