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Now Tell Me, How Do You Feel about the 2 Percent Target? NATO Defense Spending One Year after the Epochal Change

Florian Dorn, Sebastian Kleine Kuhlmann, Niklas Potrafke, Marcel Schlepper
ifo Institut, München, 2023

ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2023, 4, Nr. 3, 01-14

In 2014, NATO member states committed to increase their defense spending to or towards 2% of their economic output within ten years. Calculations by the ifo Institute show that only 11 of 30 NATO members are expected to spend at least 2% on defense in 2023. The estimates also show that defense spending by NATO and candidate country Sweden will amount to around 1.2 trillion euros in 2023, or about 2.6% of total economic output. However, more than two-thirds of this expenditure is accounted for by the United States, which exceeds the 2% target by about 330 billion euros. The other member states spend less than 1.8% of their economic output on defense. Their gap between actual spending and the 2% target is more than 50 billion euros. According to the calculations, Germany, with an underspend of 17 billion euros compared to the 2% target, will continue to place the greatest burden on the financial resources available to the Alliance in 2023.

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ifo Institute, Munich, 2023