Publications
An important goal of the ifo Institute is to make its scientific findings, analyses, survey results, and statements accessible to as many people as possible. We therefore offer a wide range of publications for different target groups with the aim of stimulating economic policy debate. Here, our own authors as well as members of the ifo’s wider networks and other experts have the opportunity to publish relevant findings and debate them publicly.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (April 2024)
Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 89.4 points in April, up from 87.9 points1 in March. This is its third consecutive rise. Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.
Equal Opportunities in the Labor Market as Part of the HR Strategy to Combat Labor and Skills Shortages (1st Quarter 2024)
In the first quarter of 2024, the Randstad-ifo HR manager survey focused on equal opportunities in the labor market, especially in light of the shortage of workers and applicants. The tools most frequently used by companies for equal opportunities are the flexibilization of working hours and of hours worked. In addition, three-quarters of the companies surveyed have changed the structure of their job advertisements and application processes in the last five years – one reason being to receive more applications.
Economic Experts Survey: Further Decline in Inflation Expected in the Short Term (1st Quarter 2024)
How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, there is a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2024 compared to previous quarters. However, long-term inflation expectations show a stagnating or rising trend.
German Companies Plan to Cut Investment in 2024
Companies in Germany have revised their investment plans for the current year downward. The ifo investment expectations fell to -0.1 points in March, down from +1.2 points in November. “Global demand for capital goods and intermediate goods remains weak and uncertainties persist regarding economic policy. As a result, many companies are postponing their investment decisions,” says Lara Zarges, economic expert at the ifo Institute.
Uncertainty Dampens the Mood of the Self-Employed in Germany
Uncertainty among the self-employed in Germany has increased. As a result, the business climate for this segment has deteriorated, according to the latest ifo survey in March (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -15.6 points*, down from -14.6 points* in February. “Contrary to the situation in the other sectors of the economy, the self-employed are experiencing increasing doubt,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber.
Business Climate in the German Chemical Industry Brightens
The business climate in Germany’s chemical industry improved in March. The index rose to -10.5 points, up from -15.5 points* in February. Business expectations improved sharply, with the indicator climbing to -2.9 points, up from -14.9 points in February. “Although the order situation in the chemical industry still leaves a lot to be desired, companies seem to have weathered the worst of the crisis,” says industry expert Anna Wolf from the ifo Institute.
Availability of Materials in Germany Approaching Pre-coronavirus Levels
German manufacturers hardly have to struggle with material shortages anymore. In March, 10.2% of the companies surveyed reported shortages, down from 14.6% in February. “The supply of raw materials and intermediate products has recently seen significant improvement,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “The situation is now almost back to how it was before the coronavirus crisis.”
One in Five Residential Construction Companies in Germany Reports Cancellations
Cancellations in German residential construction have increased. Just under one in five companies (19.6%) reported canceled orders. In February, the figure was 17.7%. “The situation in residential construction remains tense,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “There aren’t enough new orders to offset the cancellations.”
Business Climate in the German Automotive Industry on the Upswing
The business climate in Germany’s automotive industry brightened in March. The indicator rose to -5.8 points, up from -9.9 points* in February. “The German automotive industry seems to have finally emerged from its economic low in the second half of 2023 and is looking to the future with more confidence,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
ifo Business Climate Saxony: Climate Warms Slightly (March 2024)
Not only did March bring a gradual rise in outdoor temperatures, but it also warmed up the business climate in Saxony. The barometer of business sentiment in Saxony’s economy rose from 90.2 to 91.6 points. The companies surveyed raised their assessments of the business situation significantly and their business expectations slightly compared to February.
Inflation Continues to Decline in Germany
ifo price expectations in Germany fell to 14.3 points in March, down from 15.0 points in February. This is their lowest level since March 2021. “Inflation is still on the decline and should fall below 2% this summer. From a German perspective, there’s no reason why the ECB shouldn’t cut interest rates soon,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Business Climate in German Retail Improves Markedly Before Easter
The ifo Business Climate in retail brightened noticeably in March. The indicator for assessments of the current business situation rose to -7.3 points, up from -18.1 points* in February. There was a clear improvement in business expectations, too. “The pessimism that has been such a feature of recent times is receding. Business in the run-up to Easter has apparently brought a ray of hope for many retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany Blossoms with the Start of Spring (March 2024)
The ifo Business Climate Index Eastern Germany rose considerably in March. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in eastern Germany climbed to 90.0 points, up from 88.6 points in February. The eastern German companies surveyed provided assessments of their business situation that were somewhat better than the previous month, and they also raised their business expectations slightly.
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024: Headwinds from Germany and Abroad – Institutes Revise Forecast Significantly Downward
The five leading economic research institutes believe that the German economy is in trouble. In their spring report, they have revised their forecast for the current year significantly downward and now only expect economic output to grow by 0.1%.
ifo Employment Barometer Rises (March 2024)
Companies in Germany are again looking to hire more staff. The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 96.3 points in March, up from 94.9 points in February. “Companies are currently more willing to hire because they are better able to assess the economic conditions. Skilled workers continue to be in demand,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
ifo Export Expectations Rise Considerably (March 2024)
Sentiment in the German export industry is markedly brighter. The ifo Export Expectations rose to -1.4 points in March, up from -7.0 points in February. “World trade ought to pick up in the months ahead,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo, “and German exporters hope to benefit from this.”
ifo Business Climate Index rises (March 2024)
Sentiment in German companies has improved noticeably. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.8 points in March, up from 85.7 points in February. In particular, companies’ expectations turned much less pessimistic. Assessments of the current business situation also improved. The German economy glimpses light on the horizon.
Germany’s Shortage of Skilled Workers Eases Slightly
The shortage of skilled workers among companies in Germany has eased somewhat. According to the survey, 36.3% of firms are currently suffering from a shortage of qualified workers, down from 38.7% in October 2023. A year ago, it was 43.6%. “The weakening economy is reducing demand for skilled workers in the short term,” says ifo expert Klaus Wohlrabe, “but the fundamental problem is here to stay.”
Business Climate in German Retail Remains Gloomy
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in February for the third consecutive month, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. The indicator for assessments of the current business situation fell to -18 points, down from -15.2 points* in January. Expectations improved only slightly, with the indicator remaining at the low level of -36.7 points. “The economic environment remains very challenging for retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. “Consumers are holding back on shopping, which is putting a strain on retailers’ businesses.”
Sentiment in German Residential Construction Reaches Another All-Time Low
The ifo Business Climate in residential construction has reached a new low. It fell to -61.9 points in February, down from -60.7 points in January. More than half of the construction companies surveyed are dissatisfied with the current situation. Expectations are also stuck at rock bottom. “At present there isn’t a single ray of hope on the horizon for residential construction,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Orders continue to be canceled. At the same time, building permits for apartments are in free fall.”