War in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not only a military and geopolitical turning point. It is also changing the economic situation. This affects both the short-term economic trend and the medium-term prospects for growth and prosperity. The previously expected economic recovery will be weakened. There is a threat of stagflation, i.e., a combination of weak growth and high inflation. Monetary policy faces a dilemma: while interest rate hikes can curb inflation, they would further dampen growth. Fiscal policy also has little effect: it can redistribute the burdens of rising prices, but not eliminate them.
In the medium term, diversification of the energy supply will lead to greater security of supply, but also to higher energy costs. Germany risks losing ground as a location for energy-intensive industries. Rising military spending is a necessity, but in the long term will require tax increases and cuts in public spending in other areas. The global economy is disintegrating into an American-dominated and a Chinese-dominated bloc, with Russia and the EU countries as junior partners. The biggest loser will be Russia, but prosperity will also decline in Germany.
Clemens Fuest Should we stop importing gas from Russia?
Präsentation auf einer Tagung des italienischen Thinktanks The European House Ambrosetti, 1-2 April 2022.
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