Economic Experts Survey: Substantial Risk of Recession by the End of 2024 According to Economic Experts (Q4 2023)
As the growth expectations of many experts in the Economic Experts Survey for 2024 are below average, the question arises as to how high the probability of a recession is in the respective countries. The growth forecasts did not include a confidence interval, so it could be that many experts expect significantly lower growth rates in their countries in the most pessimistic scenario. Furthermore, even if growth rates are positive for the year as a whole, a country could experience a technical recession during the year (two consecutive quarters with growth rates below 0%). To assess the likelihood of such scenarios, we asked the experts in the Economic Experts Survey about the probability of a recession occurring in their country by the end of 2024.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected probability of recession in the regions for 2024.
On average, the experts are rather optimistic that their countries will be able to avoid a recession. The highest recession expectations are recorded in Eastern Europe and South America, where the experts assign an average probability of 34% to a recession. The experts in Northern and Western Europe (both 30%) and Northern America (33%) also see a high probability of recession. Experts in Southern Asia (22%), Southern Africa (21%), and Central America and the Caribbean (18%) are more certain that their countries will not experience a recession.
Note: The table shows the arithmetic mean of the expected recession probabilities in the regions for 2024, 2025, and 2027 for the latest Q4 2023 wave of the Economic Experts Survey
However, the aggregation of expectations across the sub-regions conceals considerable heterogeneity in the perceived probability that a recession could occur in individual countries. A closer look at Europe shows that the perceived probability of recession ranges from 8% (for North Macedonia) to 60% (for Bosnia and Herzegovina). Experts in Ukraine (41%), Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands (all 38%) are also very concerned that their country could experience a recession. Experts in other major economies such as Italy (27%), France (23%), and Spain (22%) are slightly less concerned, but still rate the likelihood of a recession as not insignificant. Internationally, these figures are comparable with other major economies – experts from the United States, for example, reported a similar probability (26%). High probabilities are expected in Ecuador (48%) and Argentina (61%) – countries that have experienced a recession in the recent past.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected recession probabilities in the European countries for 2024.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. 1,431 economic experts from 124 countries participated in the survey on economic growth from December 7, 2023, to December 21, 2023. You can learn about more insights in the corresponding report Q4/2023 of the Economic Experts Survey.
Economic Experts Survey Q4 2023
ifo Institut, München, 2024
