Economic Forecasts
Economic forecasts estimate how the economy will develop in the future. They focus on speed changes and turning points in key macroeconomic variables. This information helps companies and private households to make decisions on their investment and spending plans. The government also uses economic forecasts to adjust its policy instruments.
The ifo Institute publishes the ifo Economic Forecast for Germany four times a year and the ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany and Saxony twice a year. ifoCAST generates forecasts of current German GDP with the help of a statistical model that works with historical correlations. Since the German economy is closely intertwined with the world economy and in particular with the European economy, the ifo Institute is also concerned with a forecast of economic developments in the European Union and in other important countries worldwide. For its forecasts, the ifo Institute uses a variety of modern methods and critically examines the quality of its own results every year.
Further forecast in which the ifo Institute is involved:
- The Joint Economic Forecast: A joint research project by several economic institutes on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy, published twice a year.
Current Economic Forecasts
ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2025: Fiscal Policy May Haul the German Economy Out of the Crisis
The German economy is still stuck in crisis. After stagnating in the first half of 2025, the price-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.2 percent this year. Economic output is forecast to increase by 1.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in 2026 and 2027. The new German government will contribute to the recovery if it resolutely implements its plans arising from the new financial constitution for infrastructure and defense, and which were announced in the coalition negotiations.
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2025: Fiscal Stimulus Masks Structural Weakness
The German economy has been in recession for the past two years. The revised national accounts show that the crisis was much more pronounced than previously reported. The German economy stagnated in the first half of this year and its downturn is likely to have bottomed out.
ifoCAST
ifoCAST generates forecasts of current German GDP with the help of a statistical model that works with historical correlations. These forecasts do not necessarily have to correspond to the published ifo Economic Forecasts, which also take expert knowledge into account.
ifo Dresden Economic Forecast: Impact of Fiscal Measures Weaker in the East Than in the Western German States
The Eastern German economy is gradually recovering and is likely to have left its low point behind. According to the ifo Institute, economic output in Eastern Germany will increase by 0.3 percent in 2025, and thus at a similar rate to Germany as a whole. A positive trend reversal in economic activity can also be seen in Saxony. However, Saxony’s economic output is only likely to stagnate in 2025. Despite the global risks, the economy in Eastern Germany is likely to experience a fairly strong boost next year due to the fiscal measures planned by the new German government.
