Survey Results

The ifo Business Climate Index in Eastern Germany fell in June compared to the previous month. The barometer of business sentiment for the regional economy in Eastern Germany slipped from 89.1 points in May to 88.4 points in June. The eastern German companies surveyed assessed their business situation as somewhat worse than the previous month and lowered their business expectations slightly. 

The business climate in Saxony cooled down considerably in June. The barometer of business sentiment in Saxony’s economy declined to 90.8 points, down from 92.3 points in May. The companies surveyed assessed their business situation as somewhat worse than in the previous month and lowered their business expectations considerably.

The ifo Export Expectations fell slightly in June to -3.9 points, down from -3.0 points in May. “The tariff threats from the US are still on the table. An agreement between the EU and the US has yet to be reached,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “This uncertainty is lowering exporters’ expectations.”

Companies in Germany are growing more cautious in their personnel planning. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 93.7 points in June, down from 95.1 points in May. “Despite an improved mood in the economy, the labor market has not yet achieved the turnaround,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “There is still a lack of orders for new staff to be hired.”

The business climate for the self-employed and microenterprises in Germany improved again in June. The “Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed” rose from -19.0 points* in May to -15.7 points* in June. Expectations in particular were less pessimistic, and the assessment of current business was also no longer quite as critical. “Although the situation does not yet give cause for optimism, there are nevertheless signs of hope among the self-employed for a gradual recovery,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber.

On May 5, 2025, the leaders of the CDU, CSU and SPD signed their 144-page coalition agreement entitled Responsibility for Germany in Berlin. This marks the beginning of the fifth Black/Red coalition in the history of the Federal Republic. Against this backdrop, the 51st ifo and FAZ Economists Panel focuses on an economic evaluation of the coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD. 179 professors of economics participated in the survey from May 6 to 13, 2025.

In the fourth wave of the year, the EES included its regular question on experts’ expectations for economic growth in their respective countries of expertise. Specifically, in the last quarter of 2024, we asked economic experts to provide their expectations on real GDP growth in 2025 (short term), as well as for 2026 and 2028 (medium- and long-term projections).