The Effect of Preschool Attendance on Secondary School Track Choice in Germany - Evidence from Siblings

We study the effect of preschool attendance on secondary school track choice in Germany which is a crucial outcome that largely predicts educational pathways of children. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, multivariate models show a significant positive association between years of preschool attendance and a child’s probability of attending the highest school track, that is, German Gymnasium. Including family fixed effects in a sibling model, our estimates become considerably smaller and are no longer significant, indicating an upward bias in multivariate models. Accounting for several sibling-specific covariates, such as measures of innate ability and social skills, does not change this result. The low intensity of Germany’s centerbased preschool system might be a reason for the zero effects.