Dans le débat Brexit, un groupe d'économistes a proposé de laisser tomber le backstop pour l’Irlande et l’Irlande du Nord, de prolonger la date limite de la sortie au-delà du 29 Mars et la création d'une Association Douanière entre l'UE et le Royaume-Uni.
The authors of a report released by EconPol Europe have urged the UK and EU to drop the backstop solution for Northern Ireland and instead lift the time limit on the provisional agreement while working on an ambitioned customs union.
German companies continue to hire new employees but somewhat more cautiously than recently. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 103.0 points in January after 104.1 points in December. Increasing concern about the German economy has led companies to be somewhat more cautious in their hiring.
The ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany remained unchanged in the frosty month of January, holding steady at 101.9 points. The survey participants were noticeably more satisfied with their current business, but their expectations for the coming six months weakened noticeably.
The ifo Institute takes a critical view of the recommendations of the German Coal Commission on structural change. "The commission's report is largely characterised by the idea that politicians have a responsibility to create new economic structures in a region. However, all experience with an active structural policy shows that the state can at best set the framework conditions for private investors, first and foremost by expanding infrastructures and supplementing this with the use of funding policy instruments. If the commission's recommendations were adopted by politicians, there would be a great danger that a lot of money would awaken false and ultimately illusory ideas," says Joachim Ragnitz, Deputy Managing Director of the ifo Dresden branch.
A European unemployment re-insurance system could absorb an average of 15-25 percent of income losses caused by rising unemployment in deep recessions, but various arrangements would need to be made in order to avoid negative incentive effects, according to new research from EconPol Europe.
Un système européen de réassurance-chômage pourrait absorber en moyenne 15 à 25 pour cent des pertes de salaires causées par l'augmentation du chômage dans les récessions profondes, mais divers arrangements devraient être pris afin d'éviter des effets incitatifs négatifs, selon une nouvelle étude d'EconPol Europe, écrit par Mathias Dolls, chercheur à l'Institut ifo.
Business confidence among German exporters has worsened again. The ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing fell to 5.9 balance points in January, from 8.7 balance points in December. The new year is marked by worries among German manufacturers.
L'Institut ifo a critiqué la Commission du charbon en Allemagne. "Selon les calculs de l'Institut ifo, la sortie du charbon est au moins partiellement compensée par des importations d'énergie nucléaire et d'énergie au charbon en provenance de Pologne et de République tchèque ", explique Karen Pittel, chercheuse à l'ifo. "La compensation versée aux exploitants de centrales électriques et la réduction prévue des prix de l'électricité augmenteront également les coûts de l'élimination progressive du charbon. L'occasion n'a pas été saisie de combiner l'élimination progressive du charbon avec une réforme fondamentale de la politique énergétique et climatique. Un plan à long terme pour la réalisation des objectifs climatiques allemands et internationaux fait toujours défaut", a ajouté M. Pittel, directeur du Centre de l'énergie, du climat et des ressources de l'ifo. La fermeture des centrales au charbon selon un calendrier précis entraînerait des coûts supplémentaires pour la transformation du système énergétique qui, selon les estimations actuelles, nécessiterait en tout état de cause plus de 1000 milliards d'euros d'investissements supplémentaires d'ici 2050.
The ifo Institute has criticised the Coal Commission in Germany. "According to calculations by the ifo Institute, the exit from coal is at least partially offset by imports of nuclear and coal-fired power from Poland and the Czech Republic," says ifo researcher Karen Pittel. "The compensation for power plant operators and the planned reduction in electricity prices will also increase the costs of phasing out coal. The opportunity was missed to combine the phase-out of coal with a fundamental reform of energy and climate policy. There is still no long-term plan for implementing the German and international climate targets," added Pittel, head of the ifo Centre for Energy, Climate and Resources. The shutdown of coal-fired power plants according to a timetable would cause additional costs for the energy system transformation, which, according to current estimates, would require well over 1,000 billion euros in additional investments by 2050 anyway.
L'incertitude grandit dans les directions d'entreprises allemandes. L'indice du climat des affaires de l'Institut ifo est descendu à 99,1 points en janvier, après avoir atteint 101 points en décembre. Il s'agit de sa valeur la plus basse depuis février 2016. La situation actuelle des affaires a fait l'objet d'une estimation un peu moins bonne. Les attentes se sont même massivement dégradées. Pour la première fois depuis décembre 2012, elles ressortent légèrement pessimistes. L'économie allemande ralentit.
Disquiet is growing among German businesses. The ifo Business Climate Index fell from 101.0 points in December to 99.1 points in January, dropping to its lowest level since February 2016. Companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favourably. Their business expectations also deteriorated sharply and turned pessimistic for the first time since December 2012. The German economy is experiencing a downturn.
En Europe, le secteur de la construction continuera sa croissance jusqu'en 2021, bien qu'il s'agisse d'une croissance plus faible. L'année dernière, les mandats de construction ont encore augmenté de 2,8 pour cent et devraient progresser de 2 pour cent seulement cette année. Pour 2021, les prévisions actuelles du groupe de recherche Euroconstruct tablent sur une progression de 1,3 pour cent. «La conjoncture économique positive, l'environnement favorable des taux d'intérêts et l'augmentation des marges de manœuvre du secteur public comptent parmi les raisons principales de cet essor de la construction depuis 2014,» a déclaré Ludwig Dorffmeister, expert à l'ifo. «De plus, l'immigration et l'urbanisation croissante de nombreuses villes en Europe nécessitent non seulement un développement de l'offre locale de logements mais également des infrastructures routières.»
The European construction industry will grow until 2021, despite a slowdown in dynamics. While construction output in 2018 expanded by 2.8 percent, this year's increase is likely to amount to just 2 percent. For 2021, the latest forecast by the Euroconstruct research network assumes an increase of 1.3 percent. "The main reasons for the upturn in construction seen since 2014 include a good economic situation, a favourable interest rate environment and greater scope for action by the public sector," explains ifo expert Ludwig Dorffmeister. "On top of these factors, immigration and growing urbanisation in many places in Europe not only require an expansion of the local housing supply, but also call for more transport routes,” he adds.
The ifo Institute favours the slow phase-out of lignite. "In terms of energy policy, there is much to be said for a gradual phase-out," notes ifo expert Joachim Ragnitz. He believes that a rapid phase-out could pose significant supply risks, as there are still no alternatives to secure the base load. In his view, importing coal or nuclear power from neighbouring countries is not a viable solution. According to Ragnitz, "It would be short-sighted in terms of climate policy to shut down modern lignite-fired power plants in eastern Germany, and operate outdated plants in Poland or the Czech Republic instead in order to secure Germany’s energy supply.”
Le 24 janvier, l'Institut ifo fêtera ses 70 ans. « Nous le célébrerons en été, comme c'est le cas pour l'anniversaire de la Reine d'Angleterre, plus précisément lors de notre assemblée générale annuelle le 6 juin» a déclaré Clemens Fuest, le président de l'ifo. Aujourd'hui, l'Institut ifo œuvre pour une recherche d'excellence au rayonnement international, pour un soutien prospère de la génération scientifique montante et joue un rôle central dans les débats publics ainsi que dans le conseil politique national et européen. « Nous souhaitons continuer de développer ce positionnement dans les années à venir » a déclaré M. Fuest.
The Munich-based ifo Institute turns 70 on 24 January 2019. "We plan to celebrate this event, but as with the British Queen's birthday, we will delay celebrations until our Annual Meeting this summer on 6 June," explains ifo President Clemens Fuest. Today, the ifo Institute stands for outstanding, internationally renowned research, the successful promotion of junior economists and it plays a central role in public debates and in national and European policy advice. "We intend to build on this position in the years ahead," notes Fuest.
The ifo Institute has called on the EU to offer Britain a solution modelled on Switzerland. "In view of the deadlocked situation, new approaches are needed," notes Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the ifo Center for International Economics.
The German economy cooled down significantly in 2018. Economic output rose by 1.5 percent in price-adjusted terms, after a rise of 2.2 percent in the boom year of 2017. It stagnated in the second half of 2018 compared with the first six months.
The ifo President Clemens Fuest has warned against a hard Brexit and called on both sides to resume negotiations. "A hard Brexit with its huge costs must be avoided. Both parties should now return to the negotiating table and modify the agreement so that it is acceptable to all sides. Anything else would be an unacceptable policy failure," said Fuest. Ifo trade expert Gabriel Felbermayr understands the rejection of the Brexit deal by the House of Commons. "British MPs' rejection of the separation agreement is perfectly understandable because it would downgrade Britain to the status of a trade colony. It would not stand to gain trade autonomy and its territorial integrity would be called into question," notes Felbermayr.