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ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 3 May 2024

The German economy is stumbling. For 2024, the European Commission (2023), IMF (2024), and OECD (2024) each forecast that Germany will be one of the laggards in terms of economic growth compared to other developed economies. The results of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) from fall 2023 show that Germany has become substantially less attractive as a business location over the past ten years. Politicians are alarmed. On April 22, 2024, the executive committee of the FDP adopted a position paper on accelerating the economic turnaround. In the 46th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel, we take this situation as an opportunity to ask German economics professors in which areas Germany is weak and which reforms are necessary. The survey, in which 180 people took part, was conducted from April 16 to April 23, 2024.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 8 December 2023

On November 15, 2023, the Second Senate of Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court declared the second supplementary budget for 2021 unconstitutional. The reasons given included a violation of the debt brake enshrined in the country’s Basic Law (Art. 109 and Art. 115). As a result, the regular budget and parts of the special funds for 2023 and 2024 will have to be significantly restructured. The 45th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel is dedicated to the consequences of the ruling and focuses on the debt brake, which was at the center of discussions following the ruling. The survey, in which 187 economics professors took part, was conducted from November 28 to December 5, 2023.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 5 October 2023

The German government’s legislative period is half over, and the country’s economy is weakening. Not only is it being hit by external factors such as the Russian war of aggression, but it is also facing major structural challenges. The 44th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel took this as an opportunity to look at the general economic policy of the German federal government as well as specific economic policies. A total of 205 economics professors took part in the survey, which ran from September 19 to September 26, 2023.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 3 July 2023

As part of the negotiations on the 2024 federal budget, the German Ministry of Finance has stated that tax revenue in 2024 will not be sufficient to cover all spending requests. Serious savings and prioritization are needed. The 43rd ifo and FAZ Economists Panel is therefore dedicated to the 2024 federal budget. The survey, in which 177 economics professors participated, was conducted from June 20 to June 27, 2023.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 4 April 2023

Banks in Europe and America are currently gripped by a great deal of uncertainty. The 42nd ifo and FAZ Economists Panel focuses on the current turmoil in the financial system. The survey, in which 132 economics professors participated, was conducted from March 23 to March 30, 2023.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 6 December 2022

The energy crisis resulting from the Russian war of aggression and the associated price increases are putting a strain on the German economy and population. Although the German government’s relief packages can cushion the impact of the crisis, they are at the same time exacerbating the strain on public budgets in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. In its annual report of November 9, 2022, the German Council of Economic Experts therefore proposed a temporary increase in the top tax rate, the introduction of an energy solidarity surcharge for top earners, and a postponement of the reduction of bracket creep.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 7 October 2022

Accompanying its war of aggression on Ukraine, Russia has successively reduced gas supplies to Europe. As a result of Germany’s strong dependence on Russian gas, the supply freeze has led to a drastic shortage and price explosion on the energy market, burdening households and businesses alike.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 7 June 2022

Russian threats to cut off the supply of fossil fuels and drastic lockdowns in many major cities in China have highlighted Germany’s dependency on non-European imports. But doubts as to the reliability of these two trading partners predate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s strict zero-Covid policy. Whether trade with autocratic states should be limited has been a topic of discussion for quite some time now, not least due to human rights violations along supply chains.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 8 March 2022

The inflation rates in Germany and the euro area, which are currently well above the inflation target set by the European Central Bank (ECB), are dominating the current monetary policy debate. There are increasing signs that the higher inflation will last longer than originally expected by most economists and members of the central banks.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 22 December 2021

Germany’s SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, and FDP political parties signed their coalition agreement on December 7, 2021, thus adhering to an ambitious schedule. The paper is entitled “Go for More Progress – Alliance for Freedom, Justice, and Sustainability.” The Economists Panel surveyed 150 professors at German universities on major aspects of the coalition agreement.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 21 September 2021

Current forecasts for the outcome of the German federal election on September 26, 2021, indicate that there could be many different coalition options after the election. This raises the question of which coalition would likely achieve the most favorable economic development in Germany over the coming legislative period.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 4 August 2021

From the Paris Agreement and Fridays for Future to the recent amendment of the German Climate Change Act and the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” package: the international community, supranational organizations, national policymakers, and social movements are increasingly turning their attention directly to climate change. Fit for 55 raises the EU’s 2030 target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 15 percentage points to at least 55 percent compared to 1990 levels.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 22 June 2021

Members of the German Bundestag receive compensation to the tune of EUR 10,083.46 per month. According to Germany’s Basic Law, or Grundgesetz, this is to ensure their independence while also doing justice to the special responsibility and burden they carry. On June 11, 2021, the Bundestag voted to tighten the rules on supplementary income for members of parliament. From now on, MPs must declare the exact amount of supplementary income, starting at an annual amount of EUR 3,000 (or EUR 1,000 per month). Paid consulting and lobbying activities as well as lecture fees will also be prohibited in the future. The 34th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel looks at the compensation and supplementary income of German parliamentarians. A total of 146 professors at German-speaking universities participated.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 2 March 2021

Just over a year ago, on January 27, 2020, the first case of SARS-CoV-2 was diagnosed in Germany. Since then, politicians have been battling with the drastic effects of the pandemic, including via the special conferences between the federal and state governments, which have become something of a regular fixture. At the most recent such meeting, which took place on February 10, 2021, it was decided to extend the lockdown and to reduce the target incidence rate from 50 to 35: only once the incidence falls below this value will there be any further easing of restrictions, particularly as regards the retail sector. The 33rd ifo and FAZ Economists Panel looks at current coronavirus policies and the outlook for Germany in a survey of 177 professors at German universities.

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 19 November 2020

On November 3, 2020, the United States went to the polls: Democrat Joe Biden won. In an election thriller, he prevailed against the Republican incumbent Donald Trump and next year will head the US government as the country’s 46th president. 

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 19 October 2020

The German government has adopted far-reaching economic policy measures to mitigate the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. These appear to be working: in the second quarter of 2020, there were 8.86 percent fewer corporate insolvencies than in the same period last year despite the crisis (German Federal Statistical Office, 2020).

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 23 July 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has drawn attention to abuses in the meat industry. An intensive debate is going on in politics and society concerning animal welfare, worker protection, and the meat industry’s impact on the climate and the environment. State intervention is either vehemently demanded or categorically rejected, depending on the point of view. This explains why the 30th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel is focused on the meat industry. A total of 123 economists took part in the survey. 

ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel — 4 June 2020

The coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on the economy. How bad the economic consequences will be is not foreseeable at this point in time. After initial ad hoc reactions by governments and central banks, fiscal policy priorities are shifting toward economic stimulus packages. The aim of the measures is to enable rapid economic recovery. The 29th ifo and FAZ Economists Panel focuses on the economic policy measures in Germany and at the European level. A total of 120 economists took part in the survey.