Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
The economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, like that in Germany as a whole, entered a weak phase at the turn of 2022–2023. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is likely to be 0.4% below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects GDP to contract by 0.2% (Germany: −0.4%). This is despite a trend toward recovery over the further course of the year. Next year, economic output in those regions will grow again slightly by 1.3 and 1.2%, respectively (Germany: +1.5%).
A mild recession is expected in eastern Germany and Saxony in the winter half year. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is thus forecast to be 0.2 percent below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects output to remain unchanged (Germany: −0.1 percent). In the current year, by contrast, economic output in those regions will still grow by 2.1 and 1.7 percent, respectively (Germany: +1.8 percent).
The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since December 2021. Nevertheless, the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to continue expanding. In the current year, economic output in those regions will grow by 2.9 and 1.8 percent respectively (Germany: 2.5 percent). Assuming that it is still possible to avoid an undersupply of natural gas this coming winter, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be 3.5 percent higher year over year in 2023; in Saxony, gross domestic product will increase by 3.3 percent (Germany: 3.7 percent).
The coronavirus pandemic has slowed the economic recovery in eastern Germany and Saxony. In the current year, economic output in those regions will grow by 2.6 and 2.7 percent respectively (Germany: 2.5 percent). In 2022, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be 3.2 percent higher year over year; in Saxony, gross domestic product will increase by 3.4 percent (Germany: 3.7 percent).
Things are looking up for the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, where growth will reach 2.4 and 3.1 percent in the current year (Germany: 3.3 percent).
The ifo Institute expects economic output in Eastern Germany for the current year to slump by minus 4.4 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 5.0 percent. The fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 5.1 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in Eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 3.6 percent and 4.1 percent (Germany: plus 4.2 percent).
The ifo Institute expects economic output in eastern Germany for the current year to slump by 5.9 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 6.4 percent, owing to the larger proportion of industry there. However, the fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 6.7 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively (Germany: 6.4 percent), and will return to its pre-crisis level before the end of the year.