In Germany, slightly more companies than in the previous month intend to raise their prices in April. The ifo price expectations rose a little to 15.1 points in April, up from 14.3 points in March. “Inflation is unlikely to fall any further in the coming months and is set to remain at just over 2%,” says Sascha Möhrle, economic expert at the ifo Institute.
Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les prochaines années. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique économique suisse IWP. D’après cette enquête, le taux d’inflation mondial devrait atteindre 4,6 % en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4 % en 2025 et à 4,0 % en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation devrait être de 3,1 % en Allemagne, de 4,2 % en Autriche et de 1,8 % en Suisse. « Les prévisions pour 2024 en matière d’inflation ont de nouveau baissé par rapport au trimestre pré-cédent », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. « Les experts anti-cipent cependant à l’échelle mondiale des taux d’inflation assez élevés à moyen terme, supérieurs aux objectifs des banques centrales. »
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead. This is among the findings of the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 4.6% in 2024, then 4.4% next year, and 4.0% in 2027. In Germany, inflation for this year is expected to reach 3.1%, in Austria 4.2%, and in Switzerland 1.8%. “Compared to the previous quarter, inflation expectations for this year have fallen further,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “But in the medium term, the experts expect inflation rates around the world to remain quite high and above central banks’ inflation targets.”
ifo price expectations in Germany fell to 14.3 points in March, down from 15.0 points in February. This is their lowest level since March 2021. “Inflation is still on the decline and should fall below 2% this summer. From a German perspective, there’s no reason why the ECB shouldn’t cut interest rates soon,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1%. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3%. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4% (previously 1.5%). However, the level of economic activity will then be over 30 billion euros lower due to the current weak phase.
Fewer companies in Germany are looking to raise their prices. In February, the ifo price expectations slipped to 15.0 points, down from 18.8 points* in January. This was mainly due to the consumer-related sectors, where price expectations fell from 32.4 points* to 28.9 points. “This suggests that in the coming months, inflation will continue to decline,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
More of Germany’s consumer-related companies are planning to raise their prices. The ifo price expectations for these industries rose from 32.3 points* in December to 32.9 points in January. Price expectations increased noticeably among consumer-related service providers in particular, from 37.3 points* to 42.1 points. In retail, by contrast, the proportion of companies planning price increases declined; the balance there fell from 30.0 points* to 28.6 points. “This suggests that in the coming months, inflation will subside, but only slowly,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
The ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch has spoken out in favor of linking the retirement age to rising life expectancy. “Some of our neighboring countries have already decided to do this, such as the Netherlands, Sweden, and Finland,” says ifo pension expert Joachim Ragnitz.
Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les années à venir. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique écono-mique suisse IWP. D’après ce sondage, le taux d’inflation mondial atteindra 5,0% en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4% en 2025 et à 3,6% en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation sera de 3,2% en France, de 3,7% en Belgique et de 2,0% en Suisse. « Les prévisions concernant l’inflation sont beaucoup plus basses cette année que l’année dernière », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. Pour l’Allemagne, ils tablent sur 3,4%.
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 5.0 percent in 2024, then 4.4 percent next year, and 3.6 percent in 2027. In the US, inflation for this year is expected to reach 3.2 percent, in the UK 4.3 percent, and in Ireland 3.0 percent. “Compared to last year, inflation expectations for this year are significantly lower,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. Germany will have a rate of 3.4 percent.
The majority of German companies have already paid their employees a tax- and duty-free inflation compensation bonus; 72% of the personnel managers surveyed by the ifo Institute reported making the payment. A further 16% of companies plan to pay out this bonus in the near future. “The main reason for paying this bonus is to increase employee motivation,” says ifo expert Daria Schaller.
The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated. The indicator fell from -8.8 points in November to -12.1 points in December. “For many retailers, business in the first weeks of the holiday season wasn’t as good as they had hoped,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Their expectations for the coming months also darkened further and remain largely pessimistic.
The proportion of companies in Germany that want to raise their prices in the coming months is increasing again. The ifo price expectations rose to 19.7 points in December, up from 18.1 points* in November. Price expectations reached their temporary low in August 2023 at a balance of 14.5 points. “This means the decline in inflation rates is likely to stall for the time being,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
Le président de l’Institut ifo, Clemens Fuest, salue la décision de la Banque centrale européenne de maintenir ses taux directeurs à leur niveau actuel. « L’inflation se rapproche de l’objectif de 2,0 %. Il est donc judicieux de ne pas augmenter à nouveau les taux d’intérêt. Une baisse des taux serait toutefois prématurée, car le risque d’inflation ne s’est pas dissipé. La hausse des prix est essentiellement due à la forte hausse des salaires, en particulier dans les services. »
ifo President Clemens Fuest has praised the European Central Bank’s decision to maintain its interest rate pause. “Inflation is currently moving toward the target of 2.0 percent. That’s why it’s right not to raise interest rates any further. However, it’s still be too early to cut interest rates again, because inflation risks persist. This is primarily due to the current sharp rise in wages, which is leading to higher prices, particularly for services.”
Berlin, le 14 décembre 2023 - L’Institut ifo revoit à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance pour l’Allemagne en 2024, passant de 1,4 % à 0,9 %. Pour 2025, il anticipe une légère accélération à 1,3 %, alors qu’il prévoyait jusqu’ici une croissance de seulement 1,2 %. « L’évolution au dernier trimestre 2023 devrait être plus faible que prévu, ce qui aura des répercussions sur l’année à venir », explique Timo Wollmershäuser, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo, pour justifier cette décision. « L’incertitude retarde actuellement la reprise, car elle accentue la propension des consommateurs et consommatrices à épargner et freine les investissements des entreprises et des ménages. »
The ifo Institute has cut its forecast for German economic growth in 2024 from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent. For 2025, it expects a slight acceleration to 1.3 percent; ifo had previously expected growth of 1.2 percent. “The last quarter of 2023 is likely to see weaker development than previously expected, which will then also have an impact on the year ahead,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Slightly more companies in Germany are planning to raise their prices. The price plans index rose to 18.0 points in November, up from 15.4 points* in October. This is primarily due to business-related service providers and wholesalers, where the balance value climbed from 21.5 points* to 28.3 points. In consumer-related sectors, however, price expectations continued to fall. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 40.7 points* to 34.2 points; among other retailers, from 28.2 points* to 27.7 points; and among consumer-related service providers, from 29.3 points* to 25.5 points. “That means inflation is continuing to decline,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
At present, 6.8% of German companies feel their economic survival is threatened, finds an ifo Institute survey. In the previous survey conducted in January 2023, it was 4.8%. “The current phase of economic weakness is leading to a growing number of corporate insolvencies,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “But there’s not yet any indication of this turning into a larger wave.”