Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 0.9% next year, following a decline of 0.3% this year.
Price-adjusted gross domestic product will decline by 0.4% this year. In the next two years, economic output is expected to increase by 1.4% and 1.2%. The inflation rate will fall further from an average of 6.0% this year to 2.6% next year and 1.9% the year after.
Gross domestic product will decline by 0.4% this year and increase by 1.5% next year.
Price-adjusted GDP will stagnate at around the prior-year level this year (−0.1%) and increase by 1.7% next year. At 6.2% on average, the inflation rate in 2023 will be only slightly lower than a year earlier. The rate is not expected to fall to 2.2% until next year.
Gross domestic product will increase by 1.8% this year and contract slightly by 0.1% next year. In 2024, growth will be back up to 1.6%.
Gross domestic product will still increase by 1.6 percent this year and then contract by 0.3 percent next year. Inflation will average 8.1 percent this year and rise to 9.3 percent next year. It is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2023 at around 11 percent. In 2024, economic output is expected to increase by 1.8 percent and the inflation rate to fall to 2.4 percent.
Since the beginning of the year, the German economy has been recovering from earlier waves of the coronavirus. The associated normalization of spending in the consumer-related service sectors is giving the economy a strong boost. However, high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and continuing supply bottlenecks are slowing the economic recovery in almost all sectors of the economy. GDP will grow by 2.5 percent in 2022 and 3.7 percent in 2023. This year the inflation rate is expected to reach 6.8 percent, its highest level since 1974. Consumer prices are also expected to rise at an above-average rate of 3.3 percent next year.
To take account of the imponderables regarding the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, two scenarios were considered for the forecast. The base scenario assumes only a temporary increase in raw material prices, supply bottlenecks, and uncertainty. In the alternative scenario, the situation initially worsens before gradually easing from mid-year. Under these assumptions, GDP is expected to grow by only 3.1 percent (base scenario) and 2.2 percent (alternative scenario) this year, noticeably less than previously expected (3.7 percent). In the coming year, growth is then expected to be 3.3 percent (base scenario) and 3.9 percent (alternative scenario).