Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
The economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, like that in Germany as a whole, entered a weak phase at the turn of 2022–2023. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is likely to be 0.4% below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects GDP to contract by 0.2% (Germany: −0.4%). This is despite a trend toward recovery over the further course of the year. Next year, economic output in those regions will grow again slightly by 1.3 and 1.2%, respectively (Germany: +1.5%).
The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since December 2021. Nevertheless, the economy in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to continue expanding. In the current year, economic output in those regions will grow by 2.9 and 1.8 percent respectively (Germany: 2.5 percent). Assuming that it is still possible to avoid an undersupply of natural gas this coming winter, economic output in eastern Germany is likely to be 3.5 percent higher year over year in 2023; in Saxony, gross domestic product will increase by 3.3 percent (Germany: 3.7 percent).