The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated. The indicator fell from -8.8 points in November to -12.1 points in December. “For many retailers, business in the first weeks of the holiday season wasn’t as good as they had hoped,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Their expectations for the coming months also darkened further and remain largely pessimistic.
The proportion of companies in Germany that want to raise their prices in the coming months is increasing again. The ifo price expectations rose to 19.7 points in December, up from 18.1 points* in November. Price expectations reached their temporary low in August 2023 at a balance of 14.5 points. “This means the decline in inflation rates is likely to stall for the time being,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
The proportion of companies in Germany that want to raise their prices in the coming months is increasing again. The ifo price expectations rose to 19.7 points in December, up from 18.1 points* in November. Price expectations reached their temporary low in August 2023 at a balance of 14.5 points. “This means the decline in inflation rates is likely to stall for the time being,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.
Berlin, le 14 décembre 2023 - L’Institut ifo revoit à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance pour l’Allemagne en 2024, passant de 1,4 % à 0,9 %. Pour 2025, il anticipe une légère accélération à 1,3 %, alors qu’il prévoyait jusqu’ici une croissance de seulement 1,2 %. « L’évolution au dernier trimestre 2023 devrait être plus faible que prévu, ce qui aura des répercussions sur l’année à venir », explique Timo Wollmershäuser, directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l’Institut ifo, pour justifier cette décision. « L’incertitude retarde actuellement la reprise, car elle accentue la propension des consommateurs et consommatrices à épargner et freine les investissements des entreprises et des ménages. »
The ifo Institute has cut its forecast for German economic growth in 2024 from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent. For 2025, it expects a slight acceleration to 1.3 percent; ifo had previously expected growth of 1.2 percent. “The last quarter of 2023 is likely to see weaker development than previously expected, which will then also have an impact on the year ahead,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 0.9% next year, following a decline of 0.3% this year.
Le président de l’Institut ifo, Clemens Fuest, salue la décision de la Banque centrale européenne de maintenir ses taux directeurs à leur niveau actuel. « L’inflation se rapproche de l’objectif de 2,0 %. Il est donc judicieux de ne pas augmenter à nouveau les taux d’intérêt. Une baisse des taux serait toutefois prématurée, car le risque d’inflation ne s’est pas dissipé. La hausse des prix est essentiellement due à la forte hausse des salaires, en particulier dans les services. »
ifo President Clemens Fuest has praised the European Central Bank’s decision to maintain its interest rate pause. “Inflation is currently moving toward the target of 2.0 percent. That’s why it’s right not to raise interest rates any further. However, it’s still be too early to cut interest rates again, because inflation risks persist. This is primarily due to the current sharp rise in wages, which is leading to higher prices, particularly for services.”
Slightly more companies in Germany are planning to raise their prices. The price plans index rose to 18.0 points in November, up from 15.4 points* in October. This is primarily due to business-related service providers and wholesalers, where the balance value climbed from 21.5 points* to 28.3 points. In consumer-related sectors, however, price expectations continued to fall. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 40.7 points* to 34.2 points; among other retailers, from 28.2 points* to 27.7 points; and among consumer-related service providers, from 29.3 points* to 25.5 points. “That means inflation is continuing to decline,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Slightly more companies in Germany are planning to raise their prices. The price plans index rose to 18.0 points in November, up from 15.4 points* in October. This is primarily due to business-related service providers and wholesalers, where the balance value climbed from 21.5 points* to 28.3 points. In consumer-related sectors, however, price expectations continued to fall. Among food retailers, the balance fell from 40.7 points* to 34.2 points; among other retailers, from 28.2 points* to 27.7 points; and among consumer-related service providers, from 29.3 points* to 25.5 points. “That means inflation is continuing to decline,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.