Team
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Institut ifo : Amélioration des prévisions des exportateurs allemands
Les exportateurs allemands affichent un moral modérément en hausse par rapport à l'effondrement du mois de mars. En avril, les prévisions communiquées à l'Institut ifo en matière d'exportations ont progressé, passant de – 2,9 à + 3,5 points. Malgré une forte incertitude et des problèmes logistiques, les sentiments des exportateurs semblent se stabiliser pour l’instant.
EBDC Business Innovation Panel (2013)
10.7805/ebdc-binp-2013
Comportment Grades Have No Meaningful Impact for German Students
Grading the behavior of students in Germany has no meaningful impact on their educational success or school-to-work transition, finds a new ifo Institute study. “We found no discernible differences in academic performance, character traits, or career profiles between schoolchildren who received comportment grades and those who did not. These non-academic grades therefore seem to have neither a positive nor a negative impact on the students’ development,” says ifo researcher Florian Schoner. “In other words, the heated debates around them have been much ado about nothing.”
ifo Export Expectations Fall (November 2019)
Sentiment among German exporters has deteriorated. In November, the ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing decreased from minus 1.4 to minus 1.7 points. The global economy is weak, meaning that impetus for the German export economy is rather scarce.
Business Climate in Germany’s Automotive Industry Continues to Deteriorate
Germany’s automotive industry views its current business situation as worse than in the previous month, according to the ifo Business Survey. The indicator fell to 12.7 points in August, down from 22.1 points* in July. “Sentiment has deteriorated most noticeably among automakers, while suppliers remain fairly satisfied with their current situation,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
Allemagne : La pandémie retarde la reprise et l'évolution démographique freine la croissance
Dans leur rapport de printemps, les instituts de recherche les plus représentatifs d'Allemagne prévoient une augmentation du produit intérieur brut allemand de 3,7 % cette année et de 3,9 % en 2022. Les nouvelles fermetures décrétées en Allemagne retardent la reprise économique, mais dès que les risques de contamination auront été écartés, principalement par la vaccination massive, une forte reprise s'amorcera. La situation de charge de l'économie allemande devrait revenir à la normale vers le début de l'année prochaine.
Economists Expect High Inflation Worldwide
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to remain high in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 7.0% this year, then 6.0% next year, and 4.9% in 2026. “The expectations for 2023 and the next few years are virtually identical to those of the survey carried out in the first quarter,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “We’ll have to brace ourselves for high inflation rates.”
ifo Institute: German Industry Expects Historic Slump in Production
German industry is expecting an unprecedented slump in production. In April, the relevant ifo index for the next three months fell to minus 51.4 points from minus 21.4 points in March. This is its lowest value since German reunification; in December 2008, the index stood at minus 42.9 points. Dropping by 30.0 points, the decline was even more pronounced than in March, when the index fell by 22.7 points. “The trough in production is getting deeper,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Germany: Real Estate Transfer Taxes Are a Burden on Real Estate Sellers in Particular
Although real estate transfer taxes are paid by the buyers of a property, it is above all the sellers who effectively bear the burden. This is the result of a new study by researchers at the ifo Institute published on Monday.
Banks Less Reluctant to Lend to Companies in Germany
It has become easier for German companies to obtain new loans. In March, 22.7 percent of companies in ongoing credit negotiations reported restraint on the part of banks. In December, that figure was 30.0 percent. This is a finding of surveys by the ifo Institute. “The turbulence at some international banks is having no impact on lending in Germany,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
ifo Institute: Business in the Automotive Industry Much Better Now
German carmakers and their suppliers assessed their business situation in October as noticeably better than in the previous month. However, they are somewhat more pessimistic about the future. This is the finding of the ifo Institute’s latest Business Survey. In October, the indicator for the current situation rose to minus 0.2 points, up from minus 20.4 points in September. It had bottomed out in April at minus 86.2 points. “Demand for cars has seen strong growth, which has greatly improved the mood among managers,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
ifo Institute: European Construction Industry Growing Only Slowly
Between 2020 and 2022, construction in Europe will grow only by around 1 percent each year. “This is an appreciable slowdown following the 2016–2019 period, when the average increase in construction output in the 19 countries of the Euroconstruct network was still almost 3 percent a year,” says ifo Specialist for Construction and Real Estate Markets Ludwig Dorffmeister.
ifo World Economic Survey (2018q4)
10.7805/ebdc-wes-2018q4
ifo Export Expectations Edge Upward (December 2022)
Sentiment among German exporters has improved slightly. The ifo Export Expectations rose to plus 1.6 points in December, up from plus 0.9 points in November. When it comes to their exports, German manufacturers are cautiously optimistic as they head into the new year.
Bavaria as a Business Location: Export Strength Dwindles Noticeably. ifo Study Sees Lasting Negative Factors for Domestic Manufacturing
Strong export surpluses as an expression of Bavaria’s economic strength are a thing of the past, according to a new study by the ifo Institute. The German state is parting ways with one of the hallmarks of its rapid postwar economic upswing. As of 2019, Bavaria is no longer a net exporter of goods; in other words, it purchases more goods from abroad than it exports. By 2022, its export deficit rose to an annual value of EUR 34.2 billion, pushed amongst other factors by unusual high energy prices. The data for 2023 is not yet fully available, but through November the deficit stood at EUR 9.5 billion. The ifo Institute assumes a long-term trend toward export deficits.
ifo Institute: Hope in German Automotive Industry That Business Will Improve
Initial indications have appeared among German automotive companies that business is picking up again. This is the finding of the ifo Institute’s latest Business Survey. Business expectations improved considerably for the second consecutive month in July, rising to 43.7 points from 26.9 points in June. Carmakers also expect their exports to grow; the indicator rose to 40.8 points in July from 17.3 points in June.
ifo Dresden: Threat to Survival of Eastern German Companies Increases Only Slightly
Among eastern German companies, 14 percent believe the coronavirus pandemic threatens their survival, finds an ifo survey for December. This figure is barely higher than in the summer, when it stood at 13.8 percent. “Surprisingly, the new contact restrictions didn’t further increase the threat to companies’ survival as might have been expected,” says Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.
German Banks More Reluctant to Lend
It is becoming more difficult for companies in Germany to obtain new loans. In September, 29.2% of companies in ongoing credit negotiations reported restraint on the part of banks. In June, that figure was only 21.3%. “Banks are gradually increasing interest rates on loans and are more reluctant to grant them,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Institut ifo : la zone euro ne connaît qu'une faible croissance économique
La croissance en zone euro restera faible jusqu'au début de l’année 2020 annoncent les trois instituts de recherche économique ifo, KOF et Istat, basés respectivement à Munich, Zurich et Rome. Au troisième trimestre 2019, la zone euro n’a en effet enregistré qu’un taux de croissance de 0,2 %, lequel atteindra seulement 0,3 % au cours de chacun des deux prochains trimestres, alors qu’il avait été encore de 0,4 % pendant le premier trimestre de l’année en cours.
ifo Export Expectations Rise (June 2021)
Sentiment among German exporters improved significantly in June, with the ifo Export Expectations in manufacturing rising to 26.0 points from 22.5 points in May. This is its highest level since January 2011. One factor benefiting the export industry is the global catch-up effects owing to the coronavirus crisis.