ifoCAST Forecast
The assessment of overall economic development at the current point in time is of central importance and the starting point of every economic forecast. Three questions are of key importance: Which indicators are most suitable for forecasting economic developments? How can these indicators be condensed and taken into account for estimates or forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even though they are collected and published at different frequencies (monthly or quarterly)? How does the GDP growth estimate or forecast change when new indicators are released? With ifoCAST, the ifo Institute has adapted its forecast architecture to modern scientific methods.
At fixed times of the year, the ifo Institute regularly presents estimates and forecasts of Germany’s current GDP growth. These take numerous economic indicators into account, showing their influence on changes in the forecast. In this way, we link our monthly ifo Business Climate Index with a regularly updated assessment of current economic developments.
For this purpose, three fixed publication dates are defined:
- Monthly publication of the official foreign trade statistics
- Monthly publication of the ifo Business Climate Index
- Quarterly publication of the detailed National Accounts results
Feeling the Pulse of the Economy: Backcast – Nowcast – Forecast
ifoCAST distinguishes three forecast horizons: Backcast – Nowcast – Forecast. The backcast is the estimate of German GDP growth for the respective previous quarter calendar quarter before its official publication by the German Federal Statistical Office. The nowcast estimates the development of German GDP growth for the current quarter. The forecast is the forecast for the following quarter.
Latest ifoCAST
ifoCAST
ifoCAST generates forecasts of current German GDP with the help of a statistical model that works with historical correlations. These forecasts do not necessarily have to correspond to the published ifo Economic Forecasts, which also take expert knowledge into account.
