The Future of World Trade - The End of Globalization?

Globalization in Danger?

The world economy is threatening to disintegrate into political blocs that are suspiciously watching each other and sealing themselves off. This development is economically expensive, especially for an open economy like Germany's and in times of rapid technological progress. It would be politically risky - as historical experience shows. And it runs counter to the insight that solving the major global problems, above all the climate crisis, requires global cooperation.

Prof. Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, will discuss these issues, among others, with you:

• Cooperation, despite political divergence, how can that work?
• What role do institutions such as the World Bank or the World Trade Organization (WTO) play in this?
• What can the EU and Germany do?

General Information on the Presentation

The event was part of the series "Economic Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine".

The war in Ukraine is a geopolitical watershed. The world could disintegrate into an American-dominated bloc and a Chinese-dominated bloc. The war fundamentally changes the outlook for security and prosperity. There is a threat of stagflation, a combination of weak growth and high inflation. How should policymakers respond? Monetary policy faces a dilemma: Raising interest rates can curb inflation but would further dampen growth. Fiscal policy can only redistribute the burden of rising prices; it cannot eliminate it. In terms of energy policy, diversification of energy imports leads to greater security of supply, but also higher costs. In addition, military spending is rising.

• What consequences does the war have for Germany as a location for energy-intensive industries?
• In which policy fields and in which measures should the scarce resources flow?
• And what role does the EU play?