Economic Experts Survey: Economists See Bright Spot for Political Situation in Almost All World Regions (Q2 2022)
The assessment of the political situation has improved in many regions of the world compared to the first quarter of 2022, in some cases substantially. However, there are strong regional differences in the global assessment of current economic policy. These are the main findings of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Institute for Economic Policy (IWP) on a quarterly basis.
The map shows the regional average of two questions: “How do you rate the performance of your country’s current government?” and “How do you rate the stability of your country’s current political situation?”. The experts were asked for a comparison with the previous quarter; the response options range from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
In all regions of Europe, participants assess the political situation more positively compared to the last quarter. The assessments in Africa (exception: Central Africa) and Asia (exception: South Asia) are similarly positive. Also striking is the strong improvement in the assessment for Oceania. In the Americas, there is a north-south divide: while the assessment for North and Central America is positive, South America is seeing a deterioration in the political situation. Some of the negative assessments in the first survey (2022Q1) are partly offset by positive assessments in the second quarter.
The figure shows the regional mean of the questions “How do you rate the performance of your country’s current government?” (left panel) and “How do you rate the stability of your country’s current political situation?” (right panel). The experts were asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Significant Increase in Political Stability Worldwide
The political situation is assessed in equal parts based on two dimensions: the assessment of the performance of the respective government and the assessment of political stability in the country. On average, performance and especially political stability improved. For Europe, the picture of government performance is mixed: while experts for Western and Southern Europe perceive an improvement, Northern and Eastern Europe show a slight deterioration. In Central Africa and South America, there was a significant deterioration compared to the previous quarter. In Oceania, but also in North America and in large parts of Africa, government performance improved significantly, according to the experts. In Asia, the ratings are mostly slightly positive but generally not pronounced.
Perceived political stability has increased in almost all regions compared to the previous quarter. The increase in political stability is particularly pronounced in Oceania, Southern and Western Europe, but also in Central America and large parts of Africa. In Asia, East and Southeast Asia recorded the strongest increases. For Northern and Eastern Europe, however, there is only a slight improvement in political stability compared to the previous quarter. The only negative assessments in political stability are for Central Africa, South Asia, and South America.
The map shows the mean of the regional average of two questions: “How do you rate your country’s current economic policy?” and “How well does your country’s current economic policy address the challenges of the future?”. The experts were asked for a comparison with the previous quarter; the response options range from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Strong Regional Differences in Economic Policy
The economic experts see clear differences in economic policy within and between the continents. The assessment of the current economic policy improved in the second quarter in Northern, Central, and Southern Europe, in some cases substantially, while the situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated again compared to the previous quarter. In the Americas, there is a strong north-south divide: participants in North America were more positive about the prevailing economic policy in the second quarter. In Central and South America, the evaluation of economic policy decreased. There is also a negative assessment of economic policy in Central and South Asia. The experts see a slightly positive trend for West Asia; in East and Southeast Asia, the economic policy situation improved somewhat more significantly. Oceania recorded a clearly positive development. Except for Central Africa, economic policy in Africa improved, in some regions substantially.
The figure shows the regional mean of the questions “How do you rate your country’s current economic policy?” (left panel) and “How well does your country’s current economic policy address the challenges of the future?” (right panel). The experts were asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with response options ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is first averaged at country level and then within 18 world regions.
Good Report Card for Current Economic Policy
The experts were asked about the current economic policy on the one hand and the direction of economic policy regarding future challenges on the other. Compared to the previous quarter, both aspects were rated more positively on average, with a stronger positive rating for the current economic policy dimension. The experts see a deterioration in the current economic policy situation only for Central Africa and - to a lesser extent - for Eastern Europe and South America. A positive development is perceived above all in East Africa, Oceania, North America and Southern Europe. The assessment of the economic policy regarding future challenges is more heterogeneous. In Eastern Europe and Central Africa, the orientation of economic policy toward future challenges has deteriorated substantially, according to the experts. In the Americas, there is a clear north-south divide, with an improvement in North America and a deterioration in South America. In Asia, there is also no consistent picture, with positive values for East and Southeast Asia and negative values for Central and South Asia. Overall, the global average is only slightly positive in the assessment of the orientation of economic policy toward future challenges.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute: 1,795 economic experts from 127 countries participated in the survey from May 25, 2022 to June 18, 2022.
