Economic Experts Survey: Confidence in Asia and Africa, Skepticism in Europe and America (3rd Quarter 2023)
In the third quarter of 2023, the ability to overcome economic policy challenges is viewed much more critically than in the previous quarter, particularly in Europe and North and South America. A similar picture can also be seen in the assessment of political performance in these regions. This contrasts with large parts of Asia and Africa, where both economic policy and the political situation are perceived to have improved.
These are the results of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global survey of economic experts conducted jointly by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy (IWP) on a quarterly basis.
Skeptical View of Economic Policy in Europe and North and South America
The figure shows the overall assessment of the economic policy situation. This is made up of the experts' assessment of the general evaluation of current economic policy and the assessment of the suitability of economic policy for future challenges. More positive assessments compared to the previous quarter (Q2 2023) are colored blue, and more negative assessments are highlighted in red.
Globally, the experts' assessments of economic policy in their respective countries are slightly more positive compared to the previous quarter. The global average of the overall indicator for economic policy in Q3 2023 is +0.47 on a scale of -100 to +100.
Positive Assessments of Economic Policy outside Europe and America
The assessment of economic policy consists in equal parts of the experts’ assessments of current economic policy and their assessment of economic policy with regard to future challenges. The figure above shows the results separately for each of the subindices and subregions. The average global general assessment of economic policy has improved (+4), but the assessment of how well policy can cope with future challenges has remained unchanged (+0). The improvements recorded in large parts of Africa are equally attributable to the two components of the overall index. However, both indicators are declining for North Africa, while they are rising especially sharply in Central Africa. The same pattern can be observed in Asia, where the general assessment of economic policy in particular is viewed more positively. The largest increases in both indicators can be observed in Southeast Asia, where considerable improvements can be seen. Large positive shifts in both indicators can also be observed in Oceania.
The largest declines in both indicators can be seen in Eastern Europe. However, experts in Western, Southern, and Northern Europe are almost equally pessimistic in their assessments. Above all, the assessment of how well politics is coping with the challenges of the future is strongly negative in all European regions. In America, the experts are somewhat less optimistic about general economic policy and even less optimistic about the suitability of economic policy for overcoming future challenges.
Heterogeneous Assessment of the Political Situation
The figure above shows the overall assessment of the political situation in the experts’ home countries. It results from the combination of the experts’ assessments of government performance and of political stability. The experts were asked to compare the situation in the third quarter of 2023 with that of the previous quarter. More positive assessments compared to the previous quarter (Q2 2023) are colored blue, more negative assessments are highlighted in red.
On a global scale, the experts assess the current political situation in their country somewhat more positively compared to the previous quarter. The global average of the general indicator for the current political situation in Q3 2023 is 2.5 on a scale of -100 to +100.
When looking at the global regions, our data shows a considerable degree of cross-regional heterogeneity. Experts in Europe, North America, and South America are particularly negative about the political situation in their home country. At the other end of the spectrum, we observe more positive assessments in Oceania, Central America, and the Caribbean. With the exception of North Africa, experts in all regions of Asia and Africa report a significant improvement in the perceived political situation. When looking at the figures for Asia and North Africa, it should be noted that the survey was conducted before the war between Israel and Hamas. The reported improvements in Southeast Asia, where the experts are most optimistic about the development of the political situation in their countries, should be emphasized.
Overall, the world map of the political situation shows a clear geographical divide: experts from regions in the northern part of the world report a deterioration in the political situation, while experts from regions in the southern part of the world (with the exception of South America) report an improvement in the political situation.
Government Performance Particularly Criticized in Europe, Political Stability Improved Globally
The assessment of the political situation is an aggregate that is based equally on two pillars: the experts’ assessment of government performance and their assessment of political stability in their countries. The figure above shows the results separately for each of the subindices and differentiates the experts’ assessments by world region.
The assessment of government performance shows clear cross-regional trends. While experts from all parts of Europe and most parts of the Americas are increasingly critical of government performance, experts in Asia report that they are observing an improvement in government performance. In Africa, the picture is more divided, with positive assessments in Southern and East Africa contrasting with the more negative assessments of experts living in North Africa.
In terms of political stability, the experts are on average significantly more optimistic than in the previous quarter: experts in Asia and Africa in particular report improvements in all regions of the two continents. The finding of greater political stability around the globe continues a clear trend that was already observed in Q1 and Q2 2023. Although the increase in perceived political stability was slightly lower in Q2 (+7.5), the improvement in Q3 (+10) is closer to the improvement in Q1 2023 (+12). However, it should be noted that the expert assessments were collected before the war between Israel and Hamas in 2023. The only regions that contradict this trend are North America and large parts of Europe, where the experts report less political stability in their countries.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. A total of 1,541 economic experts from 128 countries participated in the survey on inflation from September 26 to October 11, 2023.
Publication
Economic Experts Survey Q3 2023
ifo Institut, München, 2023
