Economic Experts Survey: Decline in Inflation Expected in the New Year (Q4 2023)

Global Inflation Expectations Fall

For 2024, the expected global average inflation rate is 5.0%. This is the median of average expected inflation rates at the country level. The median is used because the expected inflation rates vary greatly from region to region, with some dramatically higher in individual countries and regions such as Africa than in the rest of the world.

The average rate of 5% expected in the current quarter is significantly lower than the expected rate of 6% in the third quarter of 2023. This means short-term inflation expectations are falling, but remain at a high level worldwide. Experts also expect high inflation rates worldwide in the years ahead. With an average expected inflation rate of 4.4% for 2025, a decline is also expected on average compared with 2024.

In the long term up to 2027, inflation expectations continue to be high at 3.6%. However, long-term inflation expectations have fallen compared to the results of the previous quarter (4.4%).

Inflation Expectations Falling in the Long Term, but in Some Cases an Increase in Short-Term Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations vary widely among the world’s regions. For 2024, experts expect the lowest inflation rates in Western Europe (3.1%). Expectations in Central and North America and Northern Europe are comparable (3.2–3.8%). In contrast, experts in regions such as North Africa (45%) and South America (29%) expect inflation rates to be well above average in the short term. While short-term expectations have remained stable over several quarters, the expected inflation rates for this quarter represent a decline in expectations for most regions compared to the previous quarter.

For 2027, experts expect inflation rates in Western Europe (2.1%), North America (2.4%), and Northern Europe (2.5%) to almost return to the 2% inflation rate targeted by central banks. The highest long-term inflation rates are expected in East Africa (41%) and North Africa (25%).

The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. A total of 1,541 economic experts from 128 countries participated in the survey on inflation from September 26 to October 11, 2023.