Economic Experts Survey: Further Decline in Inflation Expected in the Short Term (1st Quarter 2024)
How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? Can we observe a decline in inflation expectations? The latest wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy examines economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: although inflation expectations worldwide remain well above central banks’ inflation target, there is a further decline in the expected inflation rate for 2024 compared to previous quarters. However, long-term inflation expectations show a stagnating or rising trend.
Global Inflation Expectations Fall
For 2024, the expected global average inflation rate is 4.6%. This is the median of average expected inflation rates at the country level. The median is used because the expected inflation rates vary greatly from region to region, with some dramatically higher in individual countries and regions such as Africa than in the rest of the world.
The average rate of 4.6% expected in the current quarter is significantly lower than the expected rate of 6% in the second quarter of 2023. This means short-term inflation expectations are still falling, but remain at a high level worldwide. Experts also expect high inflation rates worldwide in the years ahead. With an average expected inflation rate of 4.4% for 2025, a slight decline is also expected on average compared with 2024.
In the long term up to 2027, inflation expectations continue to be high at 4.0%. Long-term inflation expectations have even risen again compared to the results of the previous quarter (3.6%).
Note: The figure shows the expected global average inflation rates for the years 2024 and 2026 over time. The median of the averages at the country level is shown in each case.
Note: The chart shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the regions for 2024.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the regions for 2027.
Note: The table shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the regions for the years 2024, 2025, and 2027 for the latest Q1 2024 wave of the Economic Experts Survey and the change from the previous Q4 2023 wave in parentheses.
Inflation Expectations Falling in the Long Term, but in Some Cases an Increase in Short-Term Inflation Expectations
Inflation expectations vary widely among the world’s regions. For 2024, experts expect the lowest inflation rates in Western Europe (2.8%). Expectations in North America and Northern Europe are comparable (3.1–3.7%). In contrast, experts in regions such as East Africa (35%) and South America (26%) expect inflation rates to be well above average in the short term. While short-term expectations have remained stable over several quarters, the expected inflation rates in this quarter represent a decline in expectations for most regions compared to the previous quarter.
For 2027, experts expect inflation rates in Western Europe (2.0%) and North America (2.3%) as well as in Northern Europe (2.8%) and Southern Europe (2.6%) to almost return to the 2% inflation rate targeted by central banks. The experts expect higher long-term inflation rates in Eastern Europe (5.1%) and in parts of Asia (up to 11%). The highest long-term inflation rates are expected in East Africa (41%) and North Africa (18%).
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the European countries for 2024.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the European countries for 2025.
Note: The figure shows the arithmetic mean of the expected inflation rates in the European countries for 2027.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. A total of 1,508 economic experts from 125 countries took part in the survey on inflation from March 12 to March 26, 2024.
