ifo Economic Forecast Eastern Germany and Saxony

Economic output in eastern Germany and Saxony will increase slightly in 2024, by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. This means the upturn remains below the level expected in the summer. In Germany as a whole, the economic recovery will be slightly stronger at an annual average of 0.9 percent.

The economy in eastern Germany and Saxony, like that in Germany as a whole, entered a weak phase at the turn of 2022–2023. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is likely to be 0.4% below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects GDP to contract by 0.2% (Germany: −0.4%). This is despite a trend toward recovery over the further course of the year. Next year, economic output in those regions will grow again slightly by 1.3 and 1.2%, respectively (Germany: +1.5%).

A mild recession is expected in eastern Germany and Saxony in the winter half year. Eastern Germany’s economic output in 2023 is thus forecast to be 0.2 percent below the previous year’s level; in Saxony, the ifo Institute expects output to remain unchanged (Germany: −0.1 percent). In the current year, by contrast, economic output in those regions will still grow by 2.1 and 1.7 percent, respectively (Germany: +1.8 percent).