Patrick Höppner

The ifo Business Climate in retail brightened further in April. The index rose to -14.5 points, up from -17.5 points in March. Assessments of the current business situation improved significantly. Retailers’ business expectations also became somewhat more optimistic, but remain largely cautious. “Consumer-related businesses are likely to support the overall economy in 2024,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

The ifo Business Climate in retail brightened noticeably in March. The indicator for assessments of the current business situation rose to -7.3 points, up from -18.1 points* in February. There was a clear improvement in business expectations, too. “The pessimism that has been such a feature of recent times is receding. Business in the run-up to Easter has apparently brought a ray of hope for many retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in February for the third consecutive month, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. The indicator for assessments of the current business situation fell to -18 points, down from -15.2 points* in January. Expectations improved only slightly, with the indicator remaining at the low level of -36.7 points. “The economic environment remains very challenging for retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. “Consumers are holding back on shopping, which is putting a strain on retailers’ businesses.”

The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in January. Both the current business situation and business expectations for the coming months clouded over. “Consumer restraint and a lack of skilled workers will likely continue to pose challenges for many retailers in 2024,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated. The indicator fell from -8.8 points in November to -12.1 points in December. “For many retailers, business in the first weeks of the holiday season wasn’t as good as they had hoped,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Their expectations for the coming months also darkened further and remain largely pessimistic.

The business situation for Germany’s retailers has improved somewhat. The indicator rose from -13.5 points* in October to -8.8 points in November. According to the latest ifo survey, this is the first increase in three months. “Despite the slightly improved mood among retailers, demand – which has been weak all year – remains a challenge even in the period of strong sales during the run-up to Christmas,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Christmas business is therefore unlikely to provide a surprisingly strong boost this year. Expectations for the coming months remain pessimistic.

The business situation for Germany’s retailers has deteriorated slightly once again. The indicator fell from -9.8 points* in September to -13.4 points in October. Expectations for the coming months have improved a little, but remain at a low level. “This means that many retailers remain uncertain about how they will fare going into the Christmas season,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

The business situation among German retailers has deteriorated somewhat. The indicator fell from -7.2* points in August to -9.8 points in September. Expectations for the coming months, however, improved a little. “The recent noticeable increases in incomes among many consumers should further strengthen purchasing power, and retailers stand to benefit from this, too,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

Companies in most retail segments in Germany assess their business situation as worse. “Expectations for the coming months also remain cautious. The further cooling of the economy is having an impact on retailers, who have also recently had to cope with weakening consumer demand,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

Fewer German retailers are affected by supply problems. The figure fell to 36.6% in July, down from 40.4% in June, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. Compared with the previous year, this proportion has roughly halved. “Despite more stable supply chains, the business environment remains tense for many retailers,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. “At the same time, the current period of economic weakness, combined with continued high inflation, is weighing on demand.”

The proportion of food retailers in Germany with supply problems has increased. In June, 79.7% reported bottlenecks, up from 65.8% in May, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. “Retailers are still in difficult negotiations with manufacturers on prices and conditions for certain goods. Supply freezes by manufacturers and the delisting of certain products by retailers are some of the ways the players are exerting pressure,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. 

Reduced demand for transport capacity is causing concern among German transport and logistics companies, according to data from the latest ifo Institute survey. “The – in some cases very significant – price increases for many transport and logistics services have led to the recent drop in demand,” says ifo industry expert Patrick Höppner. What’s more, the currently subdued development of the economy as a whole is putting additional strain on the demand for transport services – especially in the freight transport sector. In the second quarter of 2023, 35.2 percent of transport and logistics companies reported insufficient demand, up from 33.8 percent in the first quarter.

Supply bottlenecks at German retailers eased in May, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. In May, 41.3 percent of the businesses surveyed reported shortages, down from 45.7 percent in April. “The share of retailers affected by supply problems has been falling steadily since the beginning of the year,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. “However, the business situation remains gloomy for many. Fewer consumers are going to shops, and when they do they’re buying less due to inflation,” he adds.

Supply bottlenecks at German food retailers eased in April but are still a problem for many businesses, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. In April, 70.4 percent of companies surveyed companies reported bottlenecks, down from 77.7 percent in March. “Despite easing supply problems, food price pressure remains high and the majority of retailers expect prices to continue rising in the short term,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.

Germany’s food retailers remain the hardest-hit by supply shortages, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. In February, 85.7 percent of the companies surveyed reported this problem, down from 95.6 percent in January. “Difficult negotiations between producers and retailers over food prices and conditions have recently been a major cause of gaps on shelves,” says ifo trade expert Patrick Höppner. “Food producers can use supply freezes as leverage in these negotiations, while retailers take this as an opportunity to temporarily pull products from certain producers.”