ifo Institute: German Sickness Rate Rises Sharply in April
During the coronavirus crisis in April, the sickness rate among compulsory members of Germany’s statutory health insurance scheme rose significantly. “At 6.5 percent, it was much higher than the average of the rates for the month of April in the years 1998 to 2019, which was 3.9 percent,” says Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of Economic Forecasting at the ifo Institute, citing figures from the German Federal Ministry of Health. In total, 840,000 more members were registered as unfit for work than usual.
“The increased sickness rate is likely to have an impact on the economy in the second quarter of 2020 through a reduction in the number of hours worked,” Wollmershaeuser adds. Assuming that the sickness rate for all employees is similarly high and that the level of sickness in May is of a similar order of magnitude to that in April, the seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter rate of change in the volume of work is likely to be 0.8 percentage points lower, according to estimates by the ifo Institute. “During the influenza season in the first quarter of 2018, the dampening effect on working hours was significantly lower at minus 0.5 percentage points,” Wollmershaeuser says.
