ifo Institute: German Mortality Rate Barely Increases Despite Coronavirus Outbreak
The number of people dying in Germany is currently at a level similar to normal for this time of year, despite the coronavirus outbreak. This is according to an ifo calculation based on figures from the German Federal Statistical Office. Researchers at the Dresden Branch arrived at this conclusion by taking random fluctuations into account when calculating the mortality rate. “Despite the slight upward trend in the mortality rates observed in April, the deviation still lies within a range that can be explained by random influences,” says Anna Kremer from the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.
She explains that in addition to the time of year, the ifo calculation also took changes in the population’s age structure into consideration. “Even in the older age groups that are particularly at risk, no higher mortality rates have been observed so far; the figures still fall within the range of statistical uncertainty,” Kremer continues. “The figures are unlikely to fully reflect the restrictions on public life imposed by the German government and the Laender, given that there is a two-week lag between the infection figures and the death figures that can be traced to the coronavirus."
Update (September 8, 2020)
In 2020, no excess mortality is apparent until August 8. It is possible that the restrictions on public life since the end of March have helped to prevent increased mortality among the population during the spread of Covid-19. The danger of the disease is undisputed in view of the excess mortality in other countries.
