Soccer Fan Violence in Germany Costs EUR 44 Million Annually

On days when professional soccer matches are played in Germany, the number of violent crimes in the respective cities increases by one-fifth. This is the finding of an ifo Institute analysis of police crime statistics. “First- to third-division soccer matches in these cities lead to 21.5 percent more acts of violence than would otherwise be expected on those days of the week,” says Helmut Rainer, Director of the ifo Center for Labor and Demographic Economics. For the 4.5-year period under consideration, the ifo Institute estimates the number of soccer-related simple assaults at 38,268. This causes costs of some EUR 194 million for the police, the public prosecution offices, and the courts, as well as through loss of earnings and through medical treatment – or around EUR 44 million per year.

The increase in violence is particularly high on “derby” days – when local rival teams play each other – as well as on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays. “The victims are mainly young men between the ages of 18 and 29. But almost one-fifth of the additional violence on game days can be explained by attacks on police officers,” Rainer says. Nearly 70 percent of victims were unknown to the perpetrators before the crime.

“It’s not events during the matches or the match results that are the trigger, but rather a desire to be recognized as a member of a fan group,” Rainer explains, adding that groups of the opposing team’s fans or of police officers are perceived as outside groups that threaten one’s own group’s reputation.

The authors analyzed datasets from municipalities in Germany covering the period from January 2011 to May 2015. The registered acts of violence are taken from the police crime statistics. In addition to typical soccer data, such as the match result and any play highlights, the authors included betting odds, weather data, seasonal effects, and population indicators.