Increased Working from Home Could Lead to Higher Carbon Emissions in the Long Run

An increase in working from home could cause carbon emissions to rise over the long term, finds a new study published in ifo Schnelldienst. “In the short term, people are driving to work less often and carbon emissions are temporarily decreasing. In the long term, however, people are moving further away from expensive city centers and accepting that their commute will be longer,” says ifo researcher Waldemar Marz. In addition, people’s incentive to purchase more fuel-efficient vehicles decreases the more they work from home.

“These two adaptation processes offset about 90 percent of the initial reduction in CO₂,” Marz says. “If you also factor in higher levels of building emissions resulting from more living space and lower numbers of public transit passengers, the often hoped-for reduction in carbon emissions from an increase in working from home turns into an emissions increase in the long run.” The climate problem has a very long time horizon, which is why the long-term view is so important.

The model calculations are based on data from the United States. “However, the results are also applicable to Europe, since most differences – per capita income, vehicle preferences, land prices, etc. – have a small impact on the results, which are primarily expressed as percentages,” Marz says.