Economists Expect Very High Inflation Worldwide
Economists expect inflation rates worldwide to be high this year and next. For 2022, the expected rate is 9.5 percent, finds the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,687 participants from over 100 countries. “Compared with the second quarter, inflation expectations for 2022 have once again risen significantly by 1.8 percentage points,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.
Participants now see higher inflation rates for the coming years as well. The survey asked about the years 2023 and 2026, and respondents said they expect global inflation of 7.5 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively.
These figures refer to the median of the average expected inflation rates at the country level. The median is used because expected inflation rates vary greatly from region to region and are drastically higher in certain countries and regions than in the rest of the world. In East Africa, for example, participants expect an average inflation rate of just under 60 percent in 2022, compared with 7.3 percent and 7.2 percent in Western Europe and North America.
The results of the survey, which were gathered over the period September 7–21, 2022, are based on 1,687 responses.
Survey
Economic Experts Survey: Strong Rise in Global Inflation Expectations (Q3 2022)
What expectations do economists worldwide have for future price developments? To what extent are geopolitical challenges and the energy crisis reflected in experts’ rising inflation expectations? The current wave of the Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute examines economists’ inflation expectations at the global level. The result: high inflation rates are expected worldwide. Inflation expectations have risen significantly compared with expectations in the previous quarter.
