Stubborn core inflation – Time for supply side policies
The leading economic research institutes have raised their forecast for growth in German economic output in the current year to 0.3 percent. In the fall, they were still expecting a decline of 0.4 percent. “The economic setback in the winter half-year 2022/2023 is likely to have been less severe than feared in the fall. The main reason for this is a smaller loss of purchasing power as a result of a significant drop in energy prices,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. Nevertheless, the rate of inflation will fall only slowly from 6.9 percent last year to 6.0 percent this year.
Government relief measures and foreseeably high wage increases in Germany are strengthening domestic demand and keeping domestic inflation high. Only next year will this aspect of inflationary pressure also ease, bringing the inflation rate down noticeably to 2.4 percent. Gross domestic product is then expected to grow more strongly again by 1.5 percent.
There is good news for the labor market: the number of people in employment is likely to increase again, from 45.6 million in 2022 to 45.9 million in 2023 and 46.0 million in 2024. This year, the number of unemployed will rise temporarily from 2.42 million to 2.48 million as it will take Ukrainian refugees a little time to enter the labor market. In the coming year, however, unemployment is expected to fall again to 2.41 million people.
The government will reduce its deficit only slightly to 2.2 percent of nominal GDP in the current year, since fiscal policy will remain expansionary for the time being. Only next year will policy be tightened more significantly, bringing the deficit down to 0.9 percent. A large share of the previous year’s terms-of-trade losses, which measure the loss of purchasing power in the overall economy due to the sharp rise in the price of energy imports, will be recovered by the end of 2024. As a result, the current account balance will rise again to 6.0 percent of economic output, after temporarily falling to 3.8 percent last year.
Prognose
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2023: Inflation High at Core - Strengthen Supply Forces Now
The leading economic research institutes expect GDP to increase by 0.3% in the current year and by 1.5% in 2024. At 6.0%, the inflation rate in 2023 will be only slightly lower than in the previous year. The rate is not expected to fall noticeably until next year, in particular due to declining energy prices.
Wissenschaftliche Ansprechpartner
Professor Dr. Stefan Kooths
Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW Kiel)
Tel +49 431 8814 579 oder +49 30 2067 9664
Stefan.Kooths@ifw-kiel.de
Professor Dr. Timo Wollmershäuser
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e. V.
Tel +49 89 9224 1406
Wollmershaeuser@ifo.de
Professor Dr. Oliver Holtemöller
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
Tel +49 345 7753 800
Oliver.Holtemoeller@iwh-halle.de
Professor Dr. Torsten Schmidt
RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Tel +49 201 8149 287
Torsten.Schmidt@rwi-essen.de
