Germans and Members of Parliament Systematically Misjudge Student Performance in Their States

The study examined student performance in mathematics in various German states. In this area, schoolchildren from Saxony, Bavaria, and Thuringia achieve above-average performance. However, 41.1 percent of the population incorrectly believes that schoolchildren from these states have average to below-average achievement levels. The states whose schoolchildren score below average in mathematics are Bremen, Berlin, Saarland, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Hesse. In these states, 46.1 percent of respondents rated their schoolchildren’s performance as average or above average. Students in the remaining states have average scores on achievement tests. In these states, 62.2 percent of respondents misjudge student performance.

The picture is similar among members of the state parliaments. In states with above average results, 17.2 percent of state legislators incorrectly rate student performance as average or below average. In contrast, 20.2 percent of legislators in states with below-average results rated their students’ performance as average or above average. In states where the schoolchildren’s achievement scores are average, 63.3 percent of legislators misjudge student performance.

When respondents were given information about actual student performance, the population in higher-performing states was more satisfied with education policies. In lower-performing states, on the other hand, opinion of the work of policymakers deteriorated. “These information gaps mean that citizens are not in a position to hold their political representatives accountable for potential policy failures. More transparency about actual student performance in the different states could increase pressure on policymakers to pursue the best possible education policies,” say Katharina Werner and Sebastian Blesse, ifo researchers and coauthors of the study.

The study is based on survey experiments run in parallel with the general population and members of state parliaments. The survey of the general population was conducted in June 2020 with a representative sample as part of the ifo Education Survey. The survey of state parliamentarians included some 30 percent of all German state parliamentarians and was conducted by ZEW Mannheim from May to July 2020. The ranking of states by student performance is based on the results of the Trends in Student Achievement 2018, put together by the Institute for Educational Quality Improvement, which examines mathematics and science skills at the end of lower secondary school.