Fracking Currently Holds Only Limited Potential in Germany
ifo researcher Karen Pittel sees unconventional fracking as offering limited potential for Germany’s security of supply. “According to economic estimates, fracking could cover around 6 to 12 percent of Germany’s gas consumption,” says Karen Pittel, Director of the ifo Center for Energy, Climate, and Resources. But first, Germany would have to lift its ban on fracking and invest in the industry this would create.
It could take anywhere from 5 to 9 years to go from the planning stages to the first extraction of natural gas, Pittel says. However, as Germany aims to achieve its climate neutrality goals by 2045, demand for natural gas is expected to drop significantly from 2030 onward. “Given the limited time frame, investment in natural gas production is problematic as a commercial proposition,” Pittel says. According to an expert panel, fracking operations from unconventional reservoirs generally run for 20 to 30 years due to the high extraction costs. The operating costs for fracking in Germany are estimated to be between EUR 26 and 43 per megawatt-hour. The industry would be competitive if the actual price of natural gas were at the top end of current forecasts, which for 2030 are between EUR 18 and 59 per megawatt-hour. “Private investment from companies would require planning certainty,” Pittel says, “but this is something that fracking in Germany cannot offer.”
Article (in German): “Fracking: An Option for Germany? Opportunities, Risks, and Uncertainties of Fracking from Unconventional Reservoirs,” by Jörn Gierds, Cyril Stephanos, Berit Erlach, Manfred Fischedick, Hans-Martin Henning, Ellen Matthies, Karen Pittel, Jürgen Renn, Dirk Uwe Sauer, and Indra Spiecker genannt Döhmann, in the “Impuls” series published by the “Energy Systems of the Future” initiative. Available online (in German) at: https://doi.org/10.48669/esys_2023-5
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EconPol Forum 06/2023: Green Transition: How to Make It Finally Happen?
This edition brings together a group of economists and policymakers to discuss and debate issues of climate policy and make concrete policy proposals. In particular, it addresses the questions of whether the green transformation is market-friendly and stimulates economic growth, whether it encourages global collaboration, and how to make the costs politically and socially acceptable.
