Economic Experts See Considerable Risk of Recession in Many Countries

Economic experts from around the world believe there is a considerable likelihood of a recession in many countries by the end of 2024. In Europe, this applies in particular to Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands (38% each) as well as to Ukraine (41%). These are among the findings of the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy. “The experts pointed to geopolitical events (43%) and energy prices (33%) as the main factors increasing the likelihood of a recession,” says ifo researcher Philipp Heil.

Respondents deem a recession somewhat less likely in other European economies, such as Switzerland (17%), Ireland (20%), Spain (22%), France (23%), Italy (27%), Austria (29%), and Belgium (29%). These figures are comparable with those for other major economies: experts from the United States reported a similar probability of recession (26%). Looking worldwide, high probabilities are expected for, among others, Israel (44%), Ecuador (48%), and Argentina (61%) – countries that have experienced considerable political turbulence in the recent past. The global average is 26%.

According to the experts, unsustainable public finances and political instability also play an important role. While geopolitical events and energy prices dominate in Germany with over 50% of responses each, respondents in France mainly express concerns about monetary policy (on a par with geopolitical events; 35% of responses). French experts are also much more concerned about trade wars and protectionism than other respondents in Europe. “The results make it clear that after the Covid-19 pandemic, new global conflicts are now the decisive factors of uncertainty for the economic development of countries,” says ifo researcher Timo Wochner.

A total of 1,431 economic experts from 124 countries participated in the survey from December 7 to December 21, 2023.