Creation of an Indicator for Electricity Demand and Development of an Econometric Model to Forecast Monthly Electricity Consumption
Project period: 2 January 2010 - 30 December 2018
Research Areas:
Tasks
The project aims to compute monthly survey-based electricity indicators to forecast the electricity consumption in Germany and in ENBW customer base and to build an appropriate econometric model to predict the target time series over a forecast horizon of up to 12 months.
Methods
The electricity indicators will be generated from the disaggregated results of the Ifo business surveys in manufacturing industry and reflect the cyclical variations in power demand. The forecasting model is based on the idea of improving the predictive accuracy by combining a larger number of individual forecasts and models not only the business cycle fluctuations but also the medium term trend, seasonality, temperature and structural effects of electricity demand.
Data and other Sources
ifo Institute, ENBW
Results
The forecasts and the raw data for the generated electricity indicators are provided to the client exclusively.