Methods and Indicators for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Business Models of Companies

Tasks

This project aimed to improve the approaches and processes that KPMG employs to assess the effects of climate change on corporate business models. It provided scientific foundations and links to the current state of scientific research. The focus of the project was to develop a basic methodology for generating the data needed for the assessment. Special attention was paid to socio-economic variables and their development in climate-induced social change. This particularly refers to policy and regulation-driven prices for energy (electricity, oil, coal, gas), for example, and implicit prices for CO2 emissions. Furthermore, a database has been created that can be integrated into KPMG's existing assessment tools and is structured according to the four predefined scenarios for the evaluation process. On the basis of the scenario underlying carbon budgets and the sectoral projections of the International Energy Agency, for instance, consistent development paths for CO2 prices, electricity prices and the associated power generation mix for the European power generation system were projected using the proprietary ifo EU-REGEN model.

Methods

Literature analysis, database analysis, matching and imputation methods, simulation, scenario analysis.