Project
ifo Import Climate
Project team: Dr. Robert Lehmann
Tasks
The aim of this project is to produce a monthly survey-based indicator to forecast German imports.
Methods
The ifo Import Climate for Germany is based on the Export Climates of its 38 main trading partners. Thus, the Import Climate models imports from the exporters’ perspective instead of the perspective of the domestic economy. The Export Climates of the main trading partners are weighted by their shares in German imports to compute the ifo Import Climate.
Data and other sources
Bank for International Settlements, Conference Board, European Commission, Eurostat, Institute for Supply Management, International Monetary Fund, OECD, National Statistical Offices, UN Comtrade Database
Results
The latest results are made available as a time-series.
Contribution in Refereed Journal
Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad
Christian Grimme, Robert Lehmann, Marvin Nöller
2021
Economic Modelling 98, 109 – 117
2021
Economic Modelling 98, 109 – 117
Working Paper
Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad
Christian Grimme, Robert Lehmann, Marvin Noeller
ifo Institute, Munich, 2019
ifo Working Paper No. 294
ifo Institute, Munich, 2019
ifo Working Paper No. 294
Article in Journal
ifo Import Climate – a First Lead Indicator for Forecasting German Imports
Christian Grimme, Robert Lehmann, Marvin Nöller
ifo Institut, München, 2018
ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, Nr. 12, 27-32
ifo Institut, München, 2018
ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, Nr. 12, 27-32
Contact