Sars-Cov-2: A Dynamic Nationwide Representative Study

Tasks

To successfully exit from the lockdown, decision-makers in politics, business and society must have sufficient and timely information. Population-representative data on the spread of the pandemic (real infection rate and immunization without unreported cases) and the socio-economic, socio-psychological and medical consequences of the lockdown are needed as quickly as possible, both at the national and regional level (federal states/regions).

The research objectives of this study are therefore

• The dynamic determination of infection rate and immunity
• The dynamic characterization of the consequences of the corona crisis (socio-economic, socio-psychological, medical, compliance with shutdown requirements)
• The dynamic identification of socio-economic, socio-psychological and medical factors that influence the infection rate/immunization in the sample
• Identification of socio-economic, socio-psychological and medical factors influencing the severity of the progression of the disease (COVID-19) of sample participants
• Identification of socio-economic, socio-psychological and medical factors influencing compliance with shutdown requirements and the effects of different shutdown measures on socio-economic, socio-psychological and medical outcomes

Methods

From the omninet panel of forsa GmbH, a representative sample of the adult population of Germany, 30.000 citizens over 18 years were selected and interviewed at three points in time (June, October and November). From this pool of 30.000 respondents, 11.000 subjects were selected for throat swabbing and blood sampling to determine how many of these subjects were acutely infected with Corona virus or how many subjects had developed antibodies.

Results

Based on the results of medical testing, it can be assumed that only 0.5% of the total adult population in Germany was infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus by the beginning of August. In accordance with a projected total number of approximately 348,000 infected persons of legal age, the number of unreported cases is thus estimated to be close to 1.8 in relation to the infection numbers officially reported by the Robert Koch Institute in the period from early July to early August 2020. The second round of medical testing shows a significant acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the adult German population. By mid-November 2020, approximately 1% of German citizens over the age of 18 have been infected. This trend toward higher antibody prevalence is consistent with the number of infections reported by the Robert Koch Institute. Overall, however, this prevalence is still at a comparatively low level. The proportion of acutely infected persons in the second study period is estimated to be 0.39%.

The survey results show that it is primarily the self-employed and the marginally employed who are suffering from the economic consequences of the Corona crisis. The majority of the population accepts the measures adopted by policymakers to curb the incidence of infection or considers them not stringent enough. Only a minority of respondents considers the measures adopted by policymakers at various times throughout the pandemic to be too extensive.