ifo Economic Forecasts
Content
This project's objective is a forecast of macroeconomic trends in Germany for a period of up to two years. Because of the strong links of the German economy to the world economy and in particular to the European economy, a forecast is also made for the European Union and other important countries. A well-founded analysis of the economic situation is the basis of the forecast. The most important features of the forecast for Germany are the changes in real GDP and its use components, the development of prices, labor market and income as well as government revenue and expenditure.
Methods
For the forecasts several methods are applied: the indicator approach, the econometric prognosis and the iterative-analytical prognosis. In accordance with the question and forecasting period, the various methods are used and combined.
Data and other Sources
National Accounts and basic statistics of the Federal Statistical Office, data of the Bundesbank and the Federal Labour Office, results of enterprise surveys (in particular those of the Ifo Institute), publications of the statistical office of the EU and other international statistics.
Results
Publications on the project
The results of the ifo economic forecasts are published twice annually (at the end of July or the beginning of August and at the end of December) in ifo Schnelldienst.
The short and long versions of the Ifo Economic Forecast as well as the accompanying tables can be downloaded from the Website: ifo Economic Forecast.
Comprehensive bibliography with Ifo books and articles on economic forecasts, forecasting methods and forecast evaluation are published at Ifo Policy Issue: ifo Economic Forecasts.
